This is a thread specifically for the war, not a general megathread (use the pinned /c/genzedong thread for that).
Please keep related news in this thread rather than making separate posts. Remember to include sources and avoid spreading rumours.
this post was submitted on 18 May 2026
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From HB news mega (post body, "Stuck In A (Thucydides) Bear Trap")
spoiler
more like thucydideez nuts, gottem
Image is of a satellite image from MizarVision, a Chinese firm that has recently shown pride in being sanctioned for showing uncensored images of the Middle East. The West is not allowing up-to-date satellite imagery of the region to hide destruction.
As always, my weekly summary/preamble is in spoilers below.
spoiler preamble Military news remained relatively subdued last week, with the main front continuing to be the Lebanon border. With dozens of vehicles destroyed and many more Zionist casualties, they are now desperately searching for a solution to the FPV drone threat, with certain analysts characterizing the whole situation as the entity stumbling foot-first into a bear trap (hence the megathread title). Unfortunately for them, two better and more resourceful militaries have spent the last year or two also searching for a solution and have generally failed - with anti-drone strategies consisting mainly of 1) build your own cheap drones designed to physically intercept their cheap drones and 2) separate your forces up rather than conducting large frontal assaults WW2-style and accept that you're gonna have to fight for many months to gain substantial ground. This also explains why they're so eager to kickstart a civil war in Lebanon, although as I've stated before, I don't personally know whether that would be a silver bullet given how the Lebanese army has been deliberately not allowed to become a threatening force due to Zionist fears, and indeed, I don't know how many Lebanese citizens and soldiers would fight against the only force in their country fighting against an army trying to annex their territory and which murders hundreds of people at a time in aerial bombings on their cities.
Aside from the ever-worsening global economic catastrophe, the main event has been the US visiting China. Trump clearly intended to time the summit such that it took place after subjugating Iran and perhaps also Cuba. However, with the former goal not even remotely achieved, and the latter goal delayed - hopefully indefinitely, though the US still seems pretty intent on it - it all amounted to a big nothingburger. Marxist economist Michael Roberts has written up a great piece on the current state of the US-China economic conflict, stating among things that, despite the last decade of US sanctions and economic warfare, the Chinese economy has done extremely well, building up their own domestic industries to replace commodities lost from sanctions. China has, up to this point, refused to withdraw its aid from Iran, and seems to be looking to start moving its tankers through the Strait via Iran's new tolling mechanism.
China obviously continues to maintain its position on Taiwan, and Trump has continued the US tradition of respecting this in words and disrespecting it in actions, but it's becoming clear to everybody but the most delusional diehards that the US will not be fighting China in and around the Pacific for at least a couple decades, and likely never will. There is little choice. The Ramadan War has definitively proven that the US has been severely militarily and logistically weakened over the decades despite skyrocketing military budgets, and much of their equipment, strategies, and tactics are woefully outdated for the modern battlefield. The prospect of the US fighting a war against China and not immediately losing has gone from "almost implausible" to "hilariously absurd". Unable to meaningfully impede China, the US will have to content itself to increasingly ineffective sanctions campaigns and bullying/overthrowing nations that do not currently have much of a capacity to resist. In that vein, one hopes that Iran and friends will share their expertise in drone technology and underground fortification around the world. The age of the tunnel is upon us. :::
Source: https://lemmygrad.ml/post/11648191 (post body)
And so it begins - reject the aviation class, commence THE CENTURY OF THE MOLE
🇮🇷🇺🇸(🇮🇶) According to initial reports, Iran targeted Kurdish separatist positions in the territory of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, in Soleimaniyeh.
4 missiles hit the terrorist Komala in the "Sordash" area of Soleimaniyeh province.
This comes after the Kurdish terrorist groups attacked a mine in Iran yesterday.
🇺🇸🇮🇱 Dozens of US military cargo planes loaded with ammunition have landed in Tel Aviv over the past 24 hours, Israel's Channel 13 reports. The aircraft departed from American bases in Germany.
According to the Israeli channel, the deliveries are part of preparations for a renewed war on Iran.
🔴 @DDGeopolitics | Socials | Donate | Advertising
— 🇮🇱 NEW: The large explosion seen in Beit Shemesh, Israel, was geolocated to the rocket engine test stand at Sdot Micha Airbase
@Middle_East_Spectator
https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/32176
Pakistan deploys thousands of troops, jets fighter squadron to Saudi Arabia: Report
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are seeking to expand their alliance to include Turkiye and Qatar amid the US-Israeli war on Iran
❗️The Ministry of Health in Gaza announced this morning that 6 Palestinians were killed and 40 wounded in Israeli attacks across the Gaza Strip over the past 24 hours.
It added that a number of victims remain trapped beneath the rubble and in the streets, as ambulance and civil defense crews are still unable to reach them.
Since the so-called "ceasefire" on 11 October, 2025, at least 877 Palestinians have been killed, 2,602 injured, and 776 bodies recovered from previously inaccessible areas.
❗️Iraq denies Saudi-intercepted drones entered from its territory, calls for joint investigation
Iraq’s Foreign Ministry said on Monday that it is deeply concerned by reports that Saudi Arabia intercepted and destroyed three drones after they entered the kingdom’s airspace from Iraq, but denied that the aircraft were launched from or passed through Iraqi territory.
Baghdad said its air defense and radar systems recorded no evidence of any such activity and that Iraqi authorities have opened an immediate investigation into the incident.
The ministry called on Saudi officials to share information to help determine what happened and said Iraq remains committed to strong relations with Riyadh and to rejecting any attacks on neighboring countries.
The statement came after Saudi Defense Ministry spokesman Major General Turki al-Maliki said the kingdom intercepted the drones on Sunday and warned that Saudi Arabia reserves the right to respond “at the appropriate time and place” to protect its sovereignty and security.
Israel expands death penalty law to include West Bank Palestinians
The law permits Israeli military courts to impose executions on Palestinians as a default penalty, while Israelis are under civilian law
I usually don't post from this clown, but this post was too funny not to for me. I think my favorite is China Street Journal.
Brb, imagining China actually controlling wsj instead of a rotting Australian reactionary
🇮🇷🇺🇸| Source from within Iran’s negotiation team told Iran Nuances that the US has agreed to “waive” Iran’s oil sanctions for the duration of the negotiations.
🇵🇸❌🇮🇱 — According to Palestinian sources in the West Bank and occupied Jerusalem:
A noticeable Israeli military mobilization has been observed.
@SimurghRes
❗️Israel approves plan to seize historic Palestinian properties near Al-Aqsa Mosque
Israel has approved a sweeping plan to confiscate up to 20 historic Palestinian properties in the Bab al-Silsila neighborhood, directly adjacent to the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in occupied East Jerusalem. According to WAFA News Agency, the Palestinian Jerusalem Governorate warned that the escalation is a calculated move to ethnically cleanse the area of its indigenous population, forcefully displacing local residents and shutting down Palestinian businesses. The targeted real estate includes invaluable architectural structures and Islamic endowments dating back to the Ayyubid, Mamluk, and Ottoman eras.
The Jewish Quarter Development Company, an Israeli state-backed entity, has been authorized to execute the forced evictions and expropriations. According to local officials, the plan resurrects an aggressive 1968 military seizure order under the pretext of tightening Jewish control and security around Islam's third holiest site. By targeting Bab al-Silsila (Chain Street), which serves as a primary gateway to Al-Aqsa, Tel Aviv aims to isolate the holy site and aggressively accelerate the Judaization of the Old City.
The move coincides with a broader surge in settler violence and systematic land theft across the occupied West Bank, where settler groups work in tandem with the Israeli government to alter demographic realities. While international bodies and the United Nations repeatedly declare all Israeli settlement activity and property seizures in East Jerusalem illegal, Tel Aviv continues to advance its settlement expansion unchecked, utilizing discriminatory ownership lawsuits and military eviction orders to permanently uproot Palestinians from their capital.
⭕️ The Jerusalem Governorate says Israel has approved the construction of a museum for the Israeli military and a military recruitment office on the grounds of the UNRWA compound in the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood of occupied Jerusalem.
According to the governorate, the plan allocates 36 dunams (about 8.9 acres) to the Israeli Ministry of Defense as part of efforts to Judaize Jerusalem and impose new colonial facts on the ground.
Officials said the project is intended to entrench the Israeli occupation narrative by linking Palestinian sites to an Israeli military storyline.
The Jerusalem Governorate called on the United Nations to take action and refer Israel to the International Court of Justice if it continues targeting UNRWA and confiscating its properties.
(Palestine Today)
IRGC foils US arms shipments to 'terror groups' near border with Iraqi Kurdistan
President Donald Trump recently complained that Iranian Kurds ‘kept’ US weapons for themselves and did not give them to ‘protesters’
Leaked docs show US told Pakistan 'things will get difficult' if Imran Khan not ousted from office
For years, the US denied playing a role in the coup against Khan, which came after he refused to allow the CIA to establish a drone base on Pakistani territory
🚨 Protective Notice from the Handala Cyber Command Addressed to All Personnel Employed in the Security and Military Apparatuses of the Resistance Front , Senior managers, bodyguards, and chiefs of staff of officials.
Based on the vulnerability assessments conducted by Handala’s cyber units during the Ramadan War, all officers serving in the military and security apparatuses of the Resistance Front are strongly advised to observe the following security measures in the coming hours and days:
1- Strictly refrain from using or carrying any electronic devices, including mobile phones, smartwatches, trackers, etc., at your location.
2- Strictly avoid installing any messaging or social media applications on your personal phone. If necessary, use only web-based versions.
3- It is recommended that you refrain from using any mobile phone or SIM card registered under your own name or that of your family members.
4- Avoid using bank cards or online payment methods for your purchases.
5- If you have registered your place of residence in any database, avoid staying at that location during periods of conflict.
6- If you own a vehicle, refrain from traveling on roads or within urban areas using the registered license plate associated with it.
7- Minimize all forms of digital communication with friends and acquaintances.
8- Refrain from taking any photographs using your phone or the phones of those around you, whether location services are enabled or disabled. If any images are taken, the individual or system must immediately relocate.
9- If you use a smartphone, change the APN settings to an unconventional value.
10- Remove any commercial or free VPN services.
11- If VPN use is necessary, ensure that the VPN kill switch is enabled at all times.
12- Disable phone location access, and regularly check the permissions granted to all applications.
13- Ensure that Google search history tracking is disabled.
14- Extend the above protective measures to your family members as well.
https://t.me/CYBER_HANDALA/139
These recommendations will prove useful to people here as well. You can also add your recommendations in this comment!
damn, I already do half of those.
🇺🇸🇮🇷| BREAKING: Trump says it stopped its “planned attack on Iran tomorrow” after leaders from Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar urged him not to.
I am shocked the Gulf States have that much of a sway on his decision making .
I think it's more likely Trump is full of shit. I don't think the Arab Monarchs contributed anything to the decision, if it was even a real decision.
Trump is probably just posturing and wasn't planning anything. We've seen this clown make outrageous BS claims throughout the entirety of these couple months.
Or, he's planning to attack anyways and thinks this will lower Iran's guard (it won't).
"Actually my mom said I can't come over tonight. So I just have to stay home and play games or something."
"Dude you're 34."
"What mom says goes "
so hes gonna attack tomorrow right?
Perhaps this Friday. Monday is a market holiday. Granted, given the news related to Bolivia, there could always be action there instead of Iran...
Or they could switch things up and attack mid week because everyone has learned the pattern.
The other two I can believe, but the UAE pushing for restraint seems highly unlikely given how unhinged they’ve been acting recently.
Iran, 1960s, Pahlavi Era:
‘No entry for dogs or Iranians’
Iran, 2026, Islamic Republic:
‘Strait of Hormuz; no entry for dogs or Americans’
🇺🇸🇮🇷| Trump on Iran:
West Asia countries asked for few more days before we attack.
Maybe another 2-3 days, however Friday or Saturday, maybe the beginning of next week. Limited time frame.
❗️Hezbollah drones paralyze up to 80% of Israeli army operations in south Lebanon
Israel’s public broadcaster KAN reported on Monday, 18 May that the Israeli army estimates Hezbollah’s explosive drones are severely restricting its operational freedom in south Lebanon, disrupting between 70 and 80 percent of military activity that was originally planned for daylight hours.
According to the report, many attacks, maneuvers, and other offensive missions are now either postponed until nighttime, when Hezbollah drones are less able to detect Israeli occupation forces inside the occupation zone, or canceled altogether. Israeli officials say the drones have also contributed to casualties among troops.
KAN added that the army is facing shortages of anti-drone equipment, with counter-drone systems being distributed to only a limited number of soldiers in each company despite the growing threat. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently described Hezbollah’s drones as a “major threat” and urged the military to find solutions.
The broadcaster also cited Israeli military intelligence sources as saying that Hezbollah has shifted from a centralized command structure to a more flexible guerrilla-style approach. Smaller autonomous cells are reportedly moving between villages in south Lebanon and carrying out rapid attacks with greater independence, particularly after the assassination of several senior Radwan Force commanders.
https://t.me/thecradlemedia/59872
Hezbollah FPVs ‘restrict’ 80 percent of Israeli army operations in south Lebanon: Report
Israel expands occupation by over 1,000 square km since 7 Oct 2023: Report
The Israeli army now holds 60 percent of Gaza, encircles the Syrian capital, and occupies dozens of Lebanese border villages
Hopefully this overstreching will be their doom
❗️San Diego mayor heckled, accused of Zionist propaganda following massacre at Islamic Center
San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria was publicly heckled and accused of enabling violence during a press conference following a deadly shooting at the Islamic Center of San Diego. The attack left three Muslim victims dead outside the facility, which functions as the county's largest mosque and houses an elementary school. The perpetrators, identified as two teenage gunmen wearing camouflage, subsequently died from self-inflicted gunshot wounds inside a nearby vehicle where investigators recovered an Islamophobic suicide note filled with references to white racial pride.
During the press briefing, a visibly outraged resident interrupted the mayor, directly linking his consistent political and financial backing of Israel to the deadly radicalization taking place in the US. "You emboldened Zionist propaganda, and you'll keep doing it as long as it lines your pockets," the woman shouted, echoing growing domestic frustration over how mainstream American politicians coddle extremist ideologies. While Mayor Gloria and California Governor Gavin Newsom scrambled to issue generic condemnations labeling the massacre an unacceptable act of terror, local activists emphasize that state-sanctioned bigotry directly fuels the record-high levels of anti-Muslim hate crimes gripping the country.
The targeted killings took place just outside the mosque doors, claiming the lives of a heroic security guard and two school staff members who managed to protect the children inside before being gunned down. The FBI and local law enforcement have launched a formal hate crime investigation into the mass shooting, noting that the perpetrators used weapons scrawled with anti-Islamic slurs.
❗️Ben Gvir vows to defy potential ICC arrest warrant
Middle East Eye reported on 18 May that ICC prosecutors filed a secret application for an arrest warrant against Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, while a possible case against National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir remains under review.
Following the report, Ben Gvir attacked the court and vowed to continue his apartheid policies against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank.
“I am not afraid and not deterred. No order from The Hague will deter me from continuing to lead an offensive policy against terrorists,” Ben Gvir said, adding: “I won't apologize, I won't blink, and I won't stop.”
The report is separate from a Haaretz claim that the ICC had already issued five new sealed warrants against Israeli officials, which the court denied to Reuters as inaccurate.
❗️Israeli forces launched an artillery strike against agricultural fields in southwestern Syria earlier today, firing multiple shells near the village of Taranja in the northern Quneitra countryside.
The latest violation of Syrian sovereignty follows a series of aggressive cross-border incursions, including a military raid the previous day where Israeli occupying forces entered the village of Al-Asha, in the southern Quneitra countryside, to carry out forced searches and terrorize local residents.
❗️Syria reaffirms ban on Israeli goods and entry of Israeli citizens
Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa has issued Decree No. 109 of 2026, revising Syria’s customs law and reaffirming the ban on importing Israeli goods into the country.
Article 112 prohibits the entry of products that violate boycott laws, including the boycott of Israel, and also bars Israeli citizens from entering Syria.
The move comes as normalization talks between Syria and Israel remain stalled over Israel’s continued occupation of Syrian territory.
According to i24NEWS, Sharaa is using the decree to strengthen his domestic standing while preserving longstanding anti-Israel legislation, even as negotiations continue under US mediation.
⭕️ Gaza Health Ministry: 76% of medical imaging equipment destroyed during Israel’s genocidal war
The Gaza Ministry of Health said on 18 May that severe challenges are crippling diagnostic imaging services in the few hospitals still operating across the Gaza Strip. According to the ministry, 76 percent of all medical imaging equipment in Gaza has been destroyed during Israel’s genocidal war.
Of the remaining devices, only 24 percent are still functioning, and they are operating under extremely difficult technical conditions amid soaring demand, limited maintenance capacity, and a critical shortage of spare parts.
Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is no longer available anywhere in Gaza after all nine MRI machines were destroyed, significantly hindering both diagnosis and treatment for patients and the wounded. Only five CT scanners remain operational out of 18 previously in service, far below what is needed to meet daily diagnostic demands.
Before the war, Gaza had 88 conventional X-ray machines; just 33 are still working, most of them worn out and prone to frequent breakdowns. The ministry added that operating rooms urgently need fluoroscopy units, with only five of the 16 pre-war systems still functional, warning that the continued collapse of imaging services is severely complicating life-saving medical interventions.
❗️Israeli settler attacks across the occupied West Bank over the past 24 hours, according to Quds Feed:
• Dozens of Israeli settlers stormed the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound and performed Talmudic rituals.
• Israeli settlers smashed gravestones in the Rashaydeh cemetery in Bethlehem.
• A flag march was held through Jaber neighborhood and Wadi al-Hussein toward the Ibrahimi Mosque in Hebron.
• Settlers burned an agricultural tractor, vandalized Palestinian property, and sprayed racist slogans in the town of Majdal Bani Fadel near Nablus.
• Settlers released their livestock onto Palestinian farmland in the village of Raba in Jenin.
• Agricultural land was set on fire in the town of al-Karmil and the Umm Nir area south of Hebron under the protection of Israeli occupation forces.
• Settlers burned 500 dunams of agricultural land in the village of al-Mughayyir northwest of Ramallah.
• Palestinian vehicles were attacked with stones near the Ofra settlement east of Ramallah.
• Farmers were prevented from plowing their land in the town of Sinjil north of Ramallah.
• The settlement outpost in the Qamas area between the towns of Osarin and Beita south of Nablus was expanded.
• New settlement roads were opened in Wadi Sa'ir north of Hebron.
• Settlers harassed homeowners and a school in the Sikka area west of Dura, claiming the area falls within Area C.
• Children were harassed and intimidated on their way to school in the Abu Fazzah Bedouin community east of Ramallah.
❗️US expands blockade against Iran with new maritime and banking sanctions
The US Treasury Department has escalated its economic warfare against Iran, slapping fresh sanctions on a prominent domestic currency exchange house and blacklisting nearly two dozen commercial vessels.
The targeted entity, Amin Exchange—also operating as Ebrahimi and Associates Partnership Company—is accused by Washington of managing a sophisticated network of front companies across the UAE, Turkey, and Hong Kong to process hundreds of millions of dollars on behalf of Iranian banks. In tandem with the financial blacklisting, the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) blocked 19 commercial vessels dynamically engaged in transporting Iranian petroleum and petrochemical products to international buyers.
The sweeping restrictions were rolled out under "Economic Fury," a targeted maximum-pressure sanctions architecture deployed by the Trump administration as a financial equivalent to a bombing campaign to choke off Tehran's revenue streams.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defended the aggressive measures today, claiming that dismantling Iran’s shadow banking infrastructure is critical to cutting off funding for regional military operations and what Washington designates as terrorist proxies. The designations effectively freeze all US-based assets of the targeted entities and threaten secondary sanctions against any international financial institutions or foreign companies attempting to bypass the maritime blockade.
https://t.me/thecradlemedia/59921
'Economic Fury': US treasury chief demands allies intensify sanctions against Iran
🇮🇷| Iran’s Abyek “underground missile city” has been restored to fully functional after its entrances were obstructed from US/Israel attacks.
Like Abyek, Iran is rapidly restoring underground missile cities back to functional. (H/t: GEOIMINT)
@FotrosResistancee
https://t.me/FotrosResistancee/21665
❗️Israel admits senior reserve officer killed in Lebanese resistance ambush, 10th killed since so-called ceasefire
The Israeli army has admitted that Major (Res.) Itamar Sapir, deputy company commander in the 7008th Battalion of the 551st “Half-Fire” Formation, was killed by the Lebanese resistance in south Lebanon.
Sapir was a senior reserve field officer in one of Israel’s main reserve paratrooper brigades, making him a significant officer casualty.
Channel 12 reported that the incident took place on Tuesday morning after invading Israeli occupation forces came under fire by the Lebanese resistance from the vicinity of a church in the Qawzah area. Sapir was struck during the exchange, and the Israeli army said it is carrying out operations to locate the fighter responsible.
Israeli Army Radio said a Hezbollah fighter opened fire on the officer, killing him instantly before withdrawing from the scene, while KAN reported that the ambush took place approximately 2.5 kilometers inside an area under Israeli control.
According to Channel 12, Sapir is the tenth invading Israeli soldier killed on the northern front since the so-called ceasefire with Lebanon was declared on 16 April.
The Israeli army has now acknowledged at least 21 soldiers killed in south Lebanon since March, while reporting that more than 910 troops have been wounded.
https://t.me/thecradlemedia/59938
— 🇮🇷 NEW: Iran’s stock market opened today for the first time since the beginning of the war, and despite most stocks falling sharply upon the open, the market recovered overall and ended the day in the green
@Middle_East_Spectator
https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/32203
⭕️ The UAE Ministry of Defense announced that its air defenses successfully intercepted and destroyed six hostile drones that attempted to target civilian and strategic sites across the country over the past 48 hours, with no casualties or damage to critical infrastructure.
The ministry added that an investigation found the drones that targeted the Barakah nuclear power plant had originated from Iraqi territory.
https://t.me/thecradlemedia/59924
My prediction that this was from Iraq was correct. Again, I reiterate my suspicion that this was an Israeli False Flag meant to reignite tensions.
❗️California bans deceptive Kars4Kids ads that quietly funneled millions to Israel
The Superior Court of California has issued a permanent injunction banning the ubiquitous Kars4Kids radio advertisements across the state following a ruling that the organization engaged in systematic false advertising and unfair competition. According to court documents published by The Times of Israel, Judge Gassia Apkarian ruled that the charity's infamous musical jingle intentionally deceived the public by concealing its primary religious and geographic focus. While the commercials portrayed a secular mission to aid local, underprivileged youth, the court found that the group channeled tens of millions of dollars in donated vehicle proceeds directly into Orthodox outreach and real estate 'projects' in Israel.
Legal documents revealed that Kars4Kids acts as a primary funding funnel for its sister organization, Oorah, sending approximately $45 million annually to Israel. Instead of supporting local community programs, these public donations financed international gap-year junkets to Israel for teenagers and bankrolled a staggering $16.5 million corporate building acquisition in Israel. The court admonished the nonprofit for exploiting the goodwill of ordinary donors to engineer an unfair playing field against honest, local charities, ruling that the group cannot resume broadcasting in California unless it includes explicit, audible disclosures detailing its specific religious criteria and foreign operations.
The high-profile ruling has intensified international scrutiny over the financial transparency of pro-Israel nonprofits, triggering parallel demands in Canada for the Canada Revenue Agency to investigate tax-subsidized transfers. Recent Canadian tax filings show that Kars4Kids Canada similarly siphoned $12.6 million to the US and Israel during the 2024–2025 fiscal year. Human rights advocates, including the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), applauded the legal crackdown. They noted that masking millions in capital flight to Israel as domestic youth charity constitutes a flagrant violation of legal and moral standards.
What do you think guys? After yet another week of thruth social posts and back-to-back statements from both parties - will this be the week where we see either an escalation or an agreement? Now that the US regime is back from China, are they more inclined to pursue military action or will this just continue to fissle out without much progress?
It is obvious that both sides are quite far from eachother (mostly stemming from the US continuing to push for maximalist concessions), still the most immediate suffering seems to be felt by the people in Lebanon, Palestine and Iran.
It's a game of chicken right now. The frozen conflict can wreak havoc on domestic stability in Iran if it goes on too long and if the imperialists find ways to tighten the siege (like the blockade). At the same time, the oil situation is dangerous for the US. Yes, the US has strategic reserves to ride this out a little bit. Yes the US can buffer with Venezuelan oil and other sources. But these things can only go so far. Other commodities like helium and fertilizer will also cause huge problems for the US.
But the US has the greatest ability of the many parties involved to obtain things they need. So the US is probably calculating that they can win the game of chicken. I don't think they believe they can open the straight via force. They know that Iran can mine the waterway and that guerilla fighters could maintain unacceptable threat levels. So I actually don't think the US will resume hostilities.
I do think Israel is trying to take advantage of the fact that Iran cannot safely extend itself to defend the entire region or risk exposing major vulnerabilities to US attacks. For now I think this is the real threat - Israeli expansion in the region.
I am curious as to what will come from the meeting between Xi and Putin this week. Watching what changes in Ukraine after this meeting will give us some insight into how well China is weathering the resource crisis
I agree that in material costs the US is in a better position to wait it out - however, most of the wars waged by amerikkka throughout history have ended due to mounting domestic political cost. What is interesting now is that alot of former alies of the US regime are turning against it publicly, so it might be that even if they could win the game of chicken in theory - it is too high of a cost politically.
I agree that Israel seems to have accelerated their expansionist project, it is very interesting to see politicians in my region (EU) continue to try and justify it. I wonder if this will be the final nail in the coffin for the perceived "humane & liberal values" that the broader western conscious still attributes our states. (obviously most organized people now it's a sham, but you'd be surprised the shift that has occured in the minds of the general un-organized populace these last few years)
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