The MoU is breaking down, and in my view, is doomed to just lead to a resumption of the war. When exactly is up for debate, but I'd argue it's after a bit more oil circulation.

Iran has the capacity to halt the entire global economy, yet they're settling for concessions and a pointless dance masquerading as diplomacy, while more Lebanese people die every day as Israel continues to ethnically cleanse the south.

With the leverage Iran has, and is capable of threatening, they should be asking hard demands backed by harsh uses of force rather than the incremental approach, peppered with limp-wristed strikes that they're currently doing.

[–] bookwhyrm@lemmygrad.ml 0 points 3 days ago (1 children)

sometimes i fear that the current iranian leadership is suffering from putin syndrome: so many red lines that they've turned into a red carpet.

[–] demeritum@lemmygrad.ml 0 points 3 days ago

Not putin syndrome but a lack of cohesion due to the large infiltration by reformists elements.

It’s remarkable how similar to the Soviet Union’s terminal stage Iran is. Hopefully the hardliners can sap the anti-imperialist sentiments to finally purge the reformist factions.

[–] kasama@lemmygrad.ml 0 points 3 days ago (1 children)

Didn't Iran at one point say they wouldn't negotiate with the empire, and then of course the fucking reformists came and said, "yeah we can talk"?

I wonder if the IRGC is privately considering removing the reformists from power since they seem to be the only people that are keeping Iran from setting the entire world on fire. If they went forward with bringing the principlists back in power (aside from the IRGC, and I guess the rest of the military and political structure), We'd definitely see way more than what you describe as overwhelming waves of force, including discussing building nuclear weapons.

These are only some of my thoughts on all of this but I'm still torn on how Iran is handling this.

[–] Malkhodr@lemmygrad.ml 0 points 3 days ago

In this case, it's also a case of more moderate principalists believing that the MoU can be used to re-arm for an inevitable future conflict. The IRGC has factions within it as well, such as the more revolutionary elements of the the rank and file, the current Supreme Leader, and Jalili. However, the heads of the IRGC, largely institutionalists, are headed by Ghalibaf and are more moderate by comparison.

The reformists obviously work with moderates because it's beneficial to them, but it's not a steady alliance. The main issue a lot of people have with Ghalibaf specifically is the fact that his family is often embroiled in corruption scandals, and although he's close to top officials in the IRGC, the rank and file see him as not very humble by comparison to Jalili.

The reformists are taking advantage of the current situation, however it's with the tacit support of moderate principalists who have a slightly differing strategy to the more radical principalists.