this post was submitted on 06 Apr 2026
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it seems to me that the outcome of the iran war is almost certainly going to be a severe weakening of the us position in west asia. why, then, did it happen? and why isn't the imperial bourgeoisie resolutely opposed to it? is iran in a worse position than i think, are they not as interested in kicking the us out of their neighborhood as i think, or is it just in (some) capital's best interest to withdraw from the region? what am i missing?

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[–] frisbird@lemmy.ml 0 points 1 month ago (1 children)

The bourgeoisie is never opposed to war, because they believe foundationally in their ability to profit from it. That's likely why Trump has been doing market manipulation, to keep those people feeling like they are winning. These people don't read sitreps, they only read balance sheets. Which means right now they believe that the Ukraine situation is great and the Iran situation is great. And that reinforces their belief that the USA will always be able to win any conflict it chooses and it will only lose conflicts for profit.

I do think that there might be calculus that showed the inner circle that they would never be able to hold West Asia against China and Russia and Africa combined. This may be their way of evacuating - leaving as much of a mess behind as possible so that no one can benefit from the resources. Essentially, "if we can't have it, no one can"

[–] timicin@lemmygrad.ml 0 points 1 month ago (1 children)

leaving as much of a mess behind as possible so that no one can benefit from the resources. Essentially, “if we can’t have it, no one can”

makes me wonder about nukes.

[–] frisbird@lemmy.ml 0 points 1 month ago

Even a dirty bomb would be enough

[–] queermunist@lemmy.ml 0 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (3 children)

I favor the theory that it was now or never.

They've overused sanctions and have kickstarted dedollarization. For the same reason they kidnapped Maduro, they only had few years before it reached an irreversible tipping point. They had to capture Iran's oil and monopolize it to keep the petrodollar alive.

And.

Iran was becoming a harder and harder target to attack militarily, and it had just defeated their attempt at color revolution by demonstrating it could defeat their Starlink operation on the ground. The longer they waited, the more rockets and missiles Iran would have to retaliate against US assets. The post-color revolutionary period was actually the weakest Iran would ever be ever again.

And.

China is a rising juggernaut, and Iran plays a role in that rise. They've signed on to join the Belt and Road initiative, China was key to restoring relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Iran is a key oil supplier for China, Iran is a member of BRICS, and China has also been investing heavily in Iran's infrastructure. It wouldn't be long before the sanctions didn't even matter anymore because Iran will be able to sell and buy everything it needs without the West.

And.

Israel is no longer a viable settler project. The promise of Israel was that it would be a walled garden in the wilderness, an imperial core lifestyle with superior fire power and a perfect missile defense system and an omniscient surveillance system. Hamas blew that myth up during the Al Aqsa flood, now Israel isn't getting new settlers anymore and many settlers are trying to leave. It's why they've had to ban Israelis from flying out of the country. If the Axis of Resistance isn't destroyed, Israel is finished.

And I'm sure there's more. Basically, if Iran doesn't fall within the next few months, the US empire will begin an irreversible decline.

[–] Geektragedy@lemmygrad.ml 0 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Yeah, this is why I think this would likely have happened under Biden or Harris too. This is us nearing an inflection point in US hegemony. The robber barons won't go down without a fight.

[–] SevenSkalls@hexbear.net 0 points 1 month ago

It would explain Harris's speech saying Iran was the #1 enemy which seemed very random at the time to me.

is it time to start learning how to sing the 国际歌 in chinese now?

[–] burlemarx@lemmygrad.ml 0 points 1 month ago

Very good analysis. I also share this with you, while good part of the world is criticizing Trump for the war against Iran, the same US and European bourgeoisie wanted it to happen. However, if the train goes off the rails it is easy to just pass the blame on the machinist. And Trump is just that, and old idiot who can take the blame for the failure of imperialist expansionism.