this post was submitted on 14 Mar 2026
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I'm not sure what the terms of the "race" are. If it's developing a general intelligence, then nobody will win because LLMs can't do that. If it's about automating things in the real world, China already won that race in the past decade without AI and they seem to still be in the lead. If it's about making the biggest, fastest, most expensive graphics cards, China is still behind on that one for the foreseeable future, but the gap is closing fast. If it's about using machine learning/nueral networks for other tasks besides LLMs, I think American research institutions will remain on top of that for the foreseeable future, but we did serious damage to our investments in that kind of not-immediately-profitable research and it won't be apparent for a decade or so what the extent of the damage is.