World News

New megathread

Situation:

from HB news mega (post body, copied from week 12's mega):

spoiler

short summary here, longish summary in spoiler tags below: Western standoff munition stockpiles now substantially depleted, therefore Western aircraft activity directly over Iran increasing (as is footage of attempted and actual hits against them) as the US attempts to transition more to using bombs dropped directly onto targets, Iran is increasingly in the driver's seat and controlling the conflict, world economy is fucked and yet could still get much worse very soon, if you require a car to live (especially if it's not electric) and cannot work from home then you have my sincere condolences

spoiler longish summary here While I've seen several estimates on the current stockpiles of US and Zionist missiles and interceptors - somewhere in the realm of a third depleted, perhaps even up to half - it seems like we're reaching the point at which the US does not want to commit even more standoff munitions and is trying their luck against the Iranian air defense network directly.

We have already seen footage of Iran attempting to shoot down, and sometimes actually striking Western fifth generation planes like the F-35, and more footage along those lines is appearing for other plane models (with one side claiming that they evaded interception and the other claiming they hit it, etc etc, propaganda is everywhere, you know the drill). How much the US is willing to test their planes against Iranian air defense is a matter of debate. Strictly speaking, a few fighter jets and bombers shot down would be no catastrophic loss in the grand scheme of things, as the US has hundreds. However, the narrative of such a thing would be quite bad for the US - "You're telling me an OBLITERATED Iranian military can shoot down some of our most advanced equipment?? What are we gonna do against China?!" - and given Trump's deranged jingoistic rhetoric aimed to buoy markets, it's clear that he cares very deeply about narratives. Additionally, with Chinese exports of several critical metals to the US banned, the prospect of replacing these aircraft (and indeed the standoff munitions and the interceptors and the ground radars etc) is looking questionable.

All the while, Iran continues its strikes across the Middle East. Missile and drone strikes are reportedly on the uptick again, demonstrating that Iranian military capabilities have by no means been "destroyed" as Western propaganda claim, though it's impossible to sure there was ever a significant downtick due to Western censorship and outright fabrications. People around the world are gradually realizing the magnitude of the economic disaster that is occurring and may yet occur. Refineries and factories which deal with oil and gas directly are starting to slow down or stop production, and those who make products downstream of those are starting to follow them like dominoes. Outrage at gas station prices is rising, and many countries are considering limiting civilian driving and implementing work-from-home policies akin to the coronavirus pandemic. And now, threats are being made by Trump against both Kharg Island (where most Iranian oil is shipped from) and the Iranian electrical grid - which is highly decentralized and would require a prolonged bombing campaign to completely take out -and the promised Iranian reprisal would be apocalyptic to the Middle East. It would make oil prices rise to previously unfathomable heights as oil infrastructure turned off and remained off for months, perhaps years, and set in motion one of the world's greatest humanitarian catastrophes as the desalination necessary for tens of millions of people is shut down. It would also not be a symmetrical problem, as Iran does not rely on desalination for its water supply.

:::

Source: https://lemmygrad.ml/post/11103468 (post body)

Repeating something I said on the first megathread, is that this war could last a few more days or a few more decades. It’s a war and we don’t know what will happen, so if you’re feeling like it’s too much you could, and perhaps should, stop following it. Iran and allies are likely to suffer more casualties than the empire’s army that was built with the stolen riches from all of the world, which might just make it harder to follow for some.

Iran has a plan and from my observations so far seem to be executing it really well though, so a second victory like last year or better is quite possible!

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/22/did-iran-launch-missiles-at-us-uk-base-on-diego-garcia-heres-what-to-know

Iran denies launching missiles at Diego Garcia, claiming they do not have missiles with that range.

Sina talks with some Iranians in Tehran

Iranian media official sources says there was no contact between Tehran and Washington, Trump backed down in fear of an Iranian retaliation.

https://t.me/SimurghRes/1836

🇺🇸 REPORTER: “You said there's many points of agreement with Iran. Can you give us a few?”

TRUMP: “Like 15 points.”

REPORTER: “That Iran has said yes to?”

TRUMP: “They're not gonna have a nuclear weapon. That's number 1, 2, and 3.”

REPORTER: “They've said yes to that?”

TRUMP: “They agreed to that.”

🐻 You know it's bullsh*t when Trump says Iran "finally" agreed on something they've already agreed to... multiple times.

Video in https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/178966

🇺🇸 Trump says the Strait of Hormuz will be under "joint control"

Maybe me. Maybe me. Me and the next ayatollah, whoever that is. There will also be a serious form of regime change. Look at Venezuela.

Video in https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/178967

🇮🇱🇺🇸🇮🇷The New York Times reports that the war in Iran actually began due to a large-scale failure of Israeli intelligence.

The "Mossad" allegedly made a strategic bet on an internal uprising in Iran, which turned out to be a fatal mistake. Subsequently, Israeli special services and the country's leadership convinced Washington of the need for a coordinated strike, but the plan completely failed.

It was assumed that the targeted elimination of the top religious and political leadership of Iran would provoke a mass protest movement, and armed Kurdish forces on the borders would become the core of direct military pressure on the ground.

The American intelligence community was initially skeptical of this scenario, pointing to the lack of real prerequisites for such a development of events. Nevertheless, the Mossad's arguments about the "quick collapse of the regime" became decisive for involving the US in a full-scale conflict. And it was probably not easy to argue with Trump, as there was a real risk of losing funding and jobs.

As a result, Washington found itself hostage to a strategy based on a weak hypothesis: that an external military "roll" would lead to an instant destabilization of power. In practice, however, this caused the opposite effect - an unprecedented consolidation of the Iranian leadership and a sharp escalation of the conflict.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/159557

🏴‍☠️Trump in the last 96 hours

Friday, "I don't want a ceasefire with Iran."

Friday, "We plan to gradually reduce our military efforts in the war against Iran."

Saturday, Axios reports that Trump is planning "peace talks" with Iran.

Sunday, "Iran wants a deal. Not me."

Sunday, "If Iran doesn't open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, the US will destroy Iran's power plants."

Monday, "The US and Iran had very good and productive talks... I ordered a five-day postponement of any strikes on Iranian power plants."

US oil prices collapse below $89/barrel after Axios reports that Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan have been "passing messages" between the US and Iran.

Axios tends to report whatever people in the US or Israeli government tell them.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/159583

The approximate scale of radioactive contamination during the destruction of the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran. The station built by Russia is still functioning, but the recent arrival of a missile (or missile fragments) within 350 meters of the reactor compartment, which is enclosed by a hermetic shell, suggests that its destruction was at least considered and allowed by the attacking side. If the protective shell of the VVER-1000 reactor is breached, a unique in scale and danger nuclear catastrophe will occur.

There are about 72 tons of nuclear fuel in the reactor's active zone, and more than 200 tons of spent elements in the spent fuel pools. The destruction of the cooling systems will lead to a meltdown of the active zone and a massive release of radionuclides (Cs-137, I-131, Sr-90). Although the protective shell of the VVER-1000 reactor is capable of localizing part of the release, the prevailing wind direction will direct the radioactive cloud to the southeast - directly towards the UAE.

In the conditions of the desert, where there are no natural precipitations to "wash" the soils and rivers to carry away the suspended matter, cesium-137 will settle in the salt flats and coastal zone forever. For the UAE, this means not just an economic downturn, but the physical end of the state.

And then the radiation will go to Oman, across the ocean to reach the southern part of India, possibly affecting Sri Lanka and quite possibly reaching Indonesia, Malaysia, and the southern part of Thailand.

Video of the possible scenario in https://t.me/Slavyangrad/159576

Bloomberg reports that the aggression against Iran has caused disruptions not only to oil and gas supplies, but also to fertilizer, sulfur, helium, and petrochemical products.

Do you know which country produces large quantities of fertilizer? Russia is the leader in this industry.

@Slavyangrad https://t.me/Slavyangrad/159584

'Israel's new border must be the Litani': Israeli minister demands annexation of south Lebanon

Israel has sought to annex south Lebanon for decades to secure additional water resources and expand 'Greater Israel'

https://t.me/thecradlemedia/55354

"This is the WORST possible scenario" for Europe — Lubos Blaha, Slovak politician.

Energy prices in Europe could rise 20% or even 40% if the Iran war drags on.

Not to mention that EU economy is already struggling after sanctions on Russia.

Another energy shock could push European industry even deeper into crisis.

Video of the interview in https://t.me/Slavyangrad/159586

🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 A significant movement is underway from US Army, Navy and Air Force bases in CONUS to the Middle East comprised of at least 35 C-17 flights since March 12th, with 11 more flights on the way.

Origins:
12-Hunter Army Air Field/Fort Stewart, GA.
8-Unknown.
7-JB Lewis-McChord, WA.
6-Pope Army Air Field/Fort Bragg, NC.
4-Campbell Army Airfield/Fort Campbell, KY.
4-Gray Army Airfield/JB Lewis-McChord, WA.
4-Naval Air Station Oceana, VA.
1-MacDill AFB, FL.
1-JB McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst, NJ.

Destinations:
17-Ovda Air Base, Israel.
13-King Faisal Air Base, Jordan.
4-King Hussein Int'l Airport, Jordan.

📝 OSINT Defender: Deployment of the 82nd Airborne Division from Ft. Bragg, as well as other units with the U.S. Army, appear to now be underway from bases within the Continental United States towards the Middle East, as staging continues for potential ground operations in Iran.

🔗 The Intel Frog

https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/178993

💥📝🇱🇧🇮🇷🇮🇱 Lebanese political analyst Marwa Osman:

Yesterday was definitely not just another day in this war. It was a reality check.

Iran destroyed an entire district in Arad, occupied Palestine, with a supersonic missile. Even Israeli sources admit that about 20 buildings were destroyed, hundreds of people were killed and injured, and the bodies are still buried under the rubble. Let's just say, when 1,300 rescuers are sent to one strike zone, you can't call that anything else.

An hour earlier, there was astrike on Dimona. Many buildings were destroyed, dozens of people were injured, and here's the message: Dimona is just nine kilometers from the Israeli nuclear reactor. Iran is no longer acting covertly. It's loudly declaring: next time, we won't miss our real target.

Then came the psychological warfare. A warning to Doha was issued and then cancelled. "A mistake," they said. Maybe. Or maybe it was a message delivered exactly as intended and very well understood.

And now the biggest change: Iran officially declares that it controls Israeli airspace.

This means that the next missiles won't just fall - they will arrive unimpeded. No warnings, no interceptions, just a strike. A direct consequence of the systematic disabling of the radar shield that once protected Israel. So, in essence, Iran will act exactly as Zionist Israel did over Iran, Lebanon, and Yemen.

This changes the rules of the game. Remember when on the 15th day, Israel and the US declared that Iran was "neutralized"? The 23rd day simply showed how dangerous and false that lie was.

1. They don't know how many missiles Iran has.
2. They don't know their real range.
3. And judging by the strike near Diego Garcia, for which Iran still hasn't taken official responsibility, they underestimated him [Iran] all along.

This is a change of doctrine. You see, the holy month of Ramadan has ended. In Islam, we are forbidden to "wage war" during this month. Iran was simply defending itself. But now Eid al-Fitr has arrived (congrats😉), and Iran is starting to show the aggressors what an offensive means.

And if this trend continues, don't be surprised if the world wakes up to something even bigger - like a nuclear test, not as a first strike, but as a deterrent.

Because what's happening right now is no longer a localized conflict. These are early signs of a historic defeat [for Israel], one that will surpass the Yom Kippur War [i.e., the 1973 Arab-Israeli War].

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/159589

Current oil supply losses from Iran war exceed the combined impact of 1973 and 1979 oil crises — IEA chief Birol

Gas losses are nearly double those from the Ukraine war, while other commodities like petrochemicals are also affected, he adds

'The situation is very severe'

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/159587

🇮🇱🇮🇶❌🇮🇷 — The Mossad is the originator of the plan to support Kurdish opposition militias to seize parts of Iran.

Work on supporting Kurdish opposition militias began before the previous war on Iran.

The crossing of the border by Kurdish fighters was supposed to happen on two occasions during the war, but it was not executed.

— Channel 12

@SimurghRes

https://t.me/SimurghRes/2416