this post was submitted on 19 Feb 2026
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Jeremy Scahill and Murtaza Hussain
Feb 18, 2026

A former senior U.S. intelligence official who is an informal advisor to the Trump administration on Middle East policy told Drop Site that, based on his discussions with current officials, he assesses an 80-90% likelihood of U.S. strikes within weeks.

Iran realizes that it is facing an unprecedented threat from the U.S. if a deal that conforms with Trump’s terms is not reached, former Pentagon official Jasmine El-Gamal told Drop Site. “This is not a dress rehearsal,” she said. “This is it. This is not the negotiations of last year or the year before or the year before that. They’re backed into a corner. There’s no off ramp.”

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[–] HiddenLayer555@lemmy.ml 49 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago) (4 children)

Every American who called Russians orcs better be getting ready to fully embrace that label.

[–] ChristchurchAsshole@lemmy.ml 13 points 6 months ago

The American invaders versus the Persian defenders. A full scale bombardment.

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[–] dizzle18@lemmy.zip 42 points 6 months ago (7 children)

Is the likelihood of an invasion based on something Iran is doing? Or is it dependent on how horrifying the next Epstein file drop will be? I mean…I know the fucking answer to this already. Doesn’t make it any less infuriating. This piece of shit will start World War III, all to distract everyone from the fact that he raped children. “No new wars.”

[–] mrdown@lemmy.world 47 points 6 months ago

It is about controlling the straight of hormuz for the usa and to crush any resistance to the greater israel plan for Israel

[–] Alcoholicorn@mander.xyz 39 points 6 months ago (25 children)

Its never been about anything Iran is doing. They have never had a nuclear weapons program.

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[–] Maeve@kbin.earth 25 points 6 months ago

It's over resources since forever.

[–] PunkMonk@lemmygrad.ml 17 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

What a dogshit liberal take, it's primarily about keeping America the top dog through imperialism. Not saying the Epstein controversy has nothing all to do with this but Trump would still be doing similar warmongering even if the files had not been so damning to him and his circle.

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[–] choui4@lemmy.zip 41 points 6 months ago (79 children)

I know this is naive but is there ZERO international efforts to stop this blatant terrorism?

[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml 31 points 6 months ago (8 children)

Russia and China have been sending military aid to Iran. China has also cut the US off from rare earths supplies which is affecting American military production. Clearly that hasn't been a sufficient deterrent though.

And there's really nothing that can be done in terms of international law because the US simply ignores it.

Obviously neither Russia nor China want to have a direct military confrontation with the US either. That would be WW3, and likely lead to a nuclear holocaust.

So, it seems like a war on Iran is unavoidable at this point.

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[–] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world 22 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago) (4 children)

Europe outsourced their militarism to the US for 40-60 years.

Who would stop this? As in, who has the forces to do so?

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[–] P1d40n3@hexbear.net 35 points 6 months ago (15 children)

Trump will unleash a whole new level of hell upon this world. Just to feed his ego.

The moment Iran sinks an aircraft carrier, Donald will respond with nukes. Assuming that the madman doesn't start with a nuke.

[–] jack@hexbear.net 19 points 6 months ago (1 children)

Just to feed his ego.

It's actually to secure the hegemony of US empire and monopoly capital

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml 23 points 6 months ago (6 children)

Trump is finally about to become presidential.

[–] CitizenKong@lemmy.world 15 points 6 months ago (1 children)

Also getting his Nobel peace prize aaaany minute now.

[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml 13 points 6 months ago (1 children)

lol didn't Machado already give him hers in hopes of being crowned queen of Venezuela

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[–] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world 23 points 6 months ago (1 children)

yeah I saw almost no coverage on this today. the zone is flooded, and boy is it shit.

Don lemon though, they covered it extensively.

[–] goferking0@lemmy.sdf.org 13 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago) (1 children)

Sadly both sides are eager to attack Iran 😭 😭 😭.

Reminder Schumer started taco trump because Trump was hinting he may be soft on Iran not for anything he does to the America

[–] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world 18 points 6 months ago

Schumer will only be mad that Trump didn't fill out the right paperwork, but will fullthroated support the policy.

[–] Biffsbraincell@lemmy.zip 20 points 6 months ago

Iran is such a beautiful country. I've watched people motorcycle and bicycle through it on YouTube and the people are so kind and warm. It's really upsetting the way America wields it's might.

[–] SabinStargem@lemmy.today 20 points 6 months ago (10 children)

I hope that Iran sinks a carrier. The Trump Regime should have egg on their face, and be forced to keep their grasping hands from touching people.

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[–] Evilsandwichman@hexbear.net 19 points 6 months ago (2 children)

So just clarify, Russia, which we were all promised would drop a nuke on Ukraine, still hasn't (and won't, let's be real; this is Russia, not America), while America is most likely about to conduct their second (third if you count Hiroshima and Nagasaki as separate incidents) nuclear attack?

And you just know the news is gonna whitewash this

[–] gressen@lemmy.zip 24 points 6 months ago (1 children)

Nobody is planning a nuclear attack. Name your sources or stop spreading fear and disinformation.

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[–] SnarkoPolo@lemmy.world 11 points 6 months ago (1 children)

Iran isn't Iraq. This will be a major war with a technologically advanced military. Eventually, there will be a draft. Unfortunately, they're probably smart enough to do it by Zip code, meaning it will be another Vietnam: a war of the poor and the not-white.

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