this post was submitted on 19 Feb 2026
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Jeremy Scahill and Murtaza Hussain
Feb 18, 2026

A former senior U.S. intelligence official who is an informal advisor to the Trump administration on Middle East policy told Drop Site that, based on his discussions with current officials, he assesses an 80-90% likelihood of U.S. strikes within weeks.

Iran realizes that it is facing an unprecedented threat from the U.S. if a deal that conforms with Trump’s terms is not reached, former Pentagon official Jasmine El-Gamal told Drop Site. “This is not a dress rehearsal,” she said. “This is it. This is not the negotiations of last year or the year before or the year before that. They’re backed into a corner. There’s no off ramp.”

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[–] dizzle18@lemmy.zip 42 points 6 months ago (6 children)

Is the likelihood of an invasion based on something Iran is doing? Or is it dependent on how horrifying the next Epstein file drop will be? I mean…I know the fucking answer to this already. Doesn’t make it any less infuriating. This piece of shit will start World War III, all to distract everyone from the fact that he raped children. “No new wars.”

[–] mrdown@lemmy.world 47 points 6 months ago

It is about controlling the straight of hormuz for the usa and to crush any resistance to the greater israel plan for Israel

[–] Alcoholicorn@mander.xyz 39 points 6 months ago (3 children)

Its never been about anything Iran is doing. They have never had a nuclear weapons program.

[–] CommieKhinkali@lemmygrad.ml 6 points 6 months ago

idk if they had or have nuclear weapons, but honestly they should get them asap. north korea hasnt been invaded only because they have nukes.

[–] felixwhynot@lemmy.world -2 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago) (4 children)

Not that I support this action, but Don’t they have an enrichment facility with centrifuges?

[–] PolandIsAStateOfMind@lemmy.ml 29 points 6 months ago

They want nuclear energy, not weapons (though it's pretty stupid for them, nukes are the only thing stopping US monster)

[–] Alcoholicorn@mander.xyz 18 points 6 months ago (1 children)

They have nuclear power plants that require enriched uranium.

If Iran wanted a nuclear bomb, instead of spending months trying to enrich Uranium beyond what's required for power and medicine, they could simply chemically separate plutonium out from spent fuel.

[–] Aria@lemmygrad.ml 15 points 6 months ago

Just the fact that USA is comfortable attacking them means they don't have nukes.

[–] Serinus@lemmy.world 9 points 6 months ago

I wouldn't take a Lemmy comment as evidence either way.

[–] Maeve@kbin.earth 25 points 6 months ago

It's over resources since forever.

[–] PunkMonk@lemmygrad.ml 17 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

What a dogshit liberal take, it's primarily about keeping America the top dog through imperialism. Not saying the Epstein controversy has nothing all to do with this but Trump would still be doing similar warmongering even if the files had not been so damning to him and his circle.

[–] CommieKhinkali@lemmygrad.ml 8 points 6 months ago

lets be real here, americans dont give a shit about epstein files. the info of the epstein class has been revealed that they eat and rape children and traffic them globally. i get that, if that is something theyre willing to release/leak, what theyre not showing the public must be at least 10x worse, but the americans basically havent done shit since finding out that almost every conspiracy is real lol. i think this is just a contention of usa to have full control over the world. i mean i dont know what to tell you when the opposition party is for going to war with iran, dems and reps align 99% on foreign policy. i just hope that iran wins this and survives to see another day.

[–] RedMari@reddthat.com 6 points 6 months ago (1 children)

I really hate how prophetic the movie Wag the Dog was.

[–] Collatz_problem@hexbear.net 10 points 6 months ago

Easy to be prophetic, when you are just describing what is already happening.