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There is quite the gamble going on currently. Strong AI will happen, the problem now is the timeframe. Investors of course want it to occur on the timeframe of months, of financial quarters. In that timeframe even I feel unsure. In the timeframe of five or ten years it's more likely. You also have essentially the entire field of mathematicians and computer scientists convinced and financial investors who quickly over leveraged themselves and are now beginning to get cold feet just before the big payout.
Now I think you're not seeing the bigger picture. Cash is flowing in like crazy and not every investor is wise in where they're putting it, that is tons of nonsense projects are being funded right now. Also we have major players taking different approaches. For example OpenAI has been more heavily focused on monetizing consumers whereas anthropic has seen this waiver and is now shifting more towards B2B. So you have a lot of competitors, a lot of which are nonsense projects all looking right now to return something so investors boots stop shaking but none of this is new. It took Uber 14 years before it started showing any profits. Spotify took 18 years to become profitable. In the meantime dozens of competitors died and so did their VC.
To add fuel to the fire of all this, China has been releasing very competitive open source models they spent tens of millions of dollars to train, not out of the kindness of their heart but in an attempt to stifle US AI development. This also allows tons of people without the means otherwise to edit the model into some essentially useless use case and pitch it to investors aka one of the big reasons there are ten thousand AI pop up companies and this isn't more so in the hands of one or two AI labs.
This story about strong AI is just old propaganda; how strong? Wasting tons of electricity and water for 0.000000001 better models? Find a better promise for this technology.
So all your arguments are: "ai will get stronger" and "scary chayna" Are you parsing this through an LLM to repeat them over and over again? China has the right to defend themselves from American economic pressure; and i commend them for their great efforts in fighting against american restriction and economic terrorism. America loves to starve countries that they don't like; Just look at what they are doing to Cuba. I also hope China takes the mantle of giving the world options for American corruption in means that are both economy and technology. Eventually the US will become so threatened by open source models they will start outlawing them. The push has already started but i don't care because I don't need AI at all. Why would i want to be an intellectual cuckold? why deskill myself?
The point stands; However intellectual cucks wants to use AI, they should go for local and open source models instead of wasting so many infrastructure, power and resources on bigger models. This technology needs to be humbled, scaled down. And yeah I'm rooting for china to become first world power and maybe give the United states menace and It's lap dog israel some much needed discipline..