CTV News also made the same call.
Majority or minority gov tbd
Mark Carney and his wife Diana Fox Carney take in the results in Ottawa. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press)
this post was submitted on 29 Apr 2025
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Interesting situation right now at about midnight. 172 needed for a majority, projections say they'll be about 10 short. NDP is projected to get about 10 seats, which might not be enough to bring a Liberal/NDP coalition up to 172. Greens are down to 1 seat, leaving only Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois.
What happens if the Liberals and Conservatives (and Green) can't form a coalition to hit 172. Would the Liberals actually make a coalition with the Bloc Quebecois? What could they agree on? What would the Bloc demand?
A coalition is not the same as a minority government, there has only ever been 2 canadian coalitions. It's pretty unlikely that will happen.
I think a minority supported by BQ will be good for the environment, significant tightening on immigration, probably liberal agenda otherwise. the BQ is much more closely aligned with Libs than CPC, as I think Blanchet made clear in the english debate. A LIB+NDP+Green isn't totally out of the question right now, probably also good for the environment.
The NDP is set to lose official party status. Do you think any of them will cross the floor to the Libs?