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So in other words you wrongly assumed I was in the US and that my tomatoes would therefore likely be Californian.
Wellllll. Cali provides about 30% of the world’s tomatoes. So maybe. Almost 1 of 3 tomatoes in the world come from here.
It's a bit more nuanced. If you're in North America, it's more likely than not that you'll have a Californian tomato. If you're in Asia, it's probably Chinese. If you're in Europe there's a lot of clout for Italian tomatoes, but you'll probably see a lot of local produce front and centre, with maybe some budget options from another country or in the off-season.
But ultimately water shortages in Cali are going to have little effect on Europe. Prices on the shelve are so far removed beyond cost that a global market price rise caused by the shortage won't have a massive effect on the price consumers pay - we're already paying as much as they can get away with charging, at this point it doesn't really matter much what excuse they use to raise the price because they were already planning to do that anyway.