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this post was submitted on 27 Oct 2026
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politics
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Ah yes famously reliable Nate Silver lol
He gave Trump 2016 more odds than anyone else, the model probability was 1/3 chance, up to polling issues.
All Nate Silver’s models did was run a hierarchical Bayesian regression model with polls weighted by demographics and their forecast accuracy on previous elections.
Yeah this is just a horrible take. 538 was the only one I remember actively cautioning that a Trump win was possible and a 20% chance means you win one in five times you run the election. People who say they were notoriously wrong, frankly, weren't paying attention.
EDIT to correct typo.
People have a hard time separating people's expertise from their general opinions. Nate Silver the talking head is kind of an idiot. But Nate Silver the election modeling expert is worth taking seriously.
Definitely agree.