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Tensions mount in France as thousands rally against Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (www.euronews.com)
submitted 22 hours ago by FrogCat@piefed.social to c/europe@feddit.org
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I'm wondering if the 2027 French presidential election might turn out like the 2024 US presidential election did.

What I mean is: what if left-wing voters refuse to back the moderate (Edouard Philippe in France, Kamala Harris in the US), which just helps the far-right candidate to win (Le Pen in France, Trump in the US)?

Melenchon is liked by the left in France, but the polls show he fares much worse against Le Pen than Philippe does. If the second round is Melenchon vs Le Pen, then Le Pen's victory becomes more likely.

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[–] Uruanna@lemmy.world 11 points 20 hours ago (1 children)

But if it ends up being Melenchon versus Le Pen in the second round, it could be pretty difficult to stop Le Pen winning.

Because the center wouldn't vote for Mélenchon against Le Pen? If that's true then we're already dead. My point is I doubt it's true, though.

[–] FrogCat@piefed.social 1 points 6 hours ago

I'm just looking at polling. In fact Melenchon now seems to be in second place for the first round, behind Le Pen, so perhaps he is likely to get into the second round. But the problem is that he fares worse than Philippe in the second round against Le Pen.

The most recent second round polls seem to show this:

  • Philippe ~44%, Le Pen ~56%
  • Melenchon ~31%, Le Pen ~69%

Of course polling can change. Pollsters in 2016 thought Hillary Clinton would enter the White House. But still, at the moment, if Melenchon gets to the second round, it looks like a victory for Le Pen is more likely.