this post was submitted on 15 May 2026
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me_irl
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I don't consider Polymarket a good indicator of how likely it is that we will get another pandemic.
People are generally still somewhat traumatized from the previous pandemic. So it is only logical that when hearing of a new plague-boat sailing around, they overestimate the risk of things going south. But keep in mind that the average Polymarket user is not an epidemiology expert.
Epidemiology experts seem to not be too concerned about this turning into a pandemic, so I'm trusting their judgement.
Edit: Also, the BBC post is about a noravirus outbreak, which is extremely common on cruise ships.
The part that gets to me is all the mixed messages. First, it's not possible to spread between people... then they say it does actually spread between people... but that you need extensive long-term contact... and yet it's probable that secondary secondary cases are walking around, due to the prolonged incubation period.
Sure, it's hard to know all this stuff when it's first "discovered", but it gives a bad taste regarding their handling. I still hope it won't be a pandemic, but it's still worrysome.
Hantavirus normally does not spread from human to human. However, this particular variant, the Andes variant, has previously been observed jumping from person to person. That doesn't mean it's good at it though.
Put enough people in an enclosed space for a prolonged period (such as a cruise ship) and there will be some human to human transmissions. But it doesn't spread nearly as well between people as, for example, COVID did.
As for the handling. At first it was not known that the illness on board the ship was Hantavirus, so no adequate precautions were taken. Once it was established to be Hantavirus however, the authorities were informed and the handling improved a lot.
I am not too worried that this will turn into another pandemic.
And then what's a "prolonged time"? 20 minutes on a bus commute? 45 minutes on the train? 8 hours on an airplane?
The 2018 outbreak in Epuyén showed that someone who felt just a bit sicky was able to infect 5 people at a party in less than 90 minutes. That being a remote village, not these "I love to travel" kind of folks. So it's slightly worrysome - if they haven't done complete contact tracing.