this post was submitted on 05 May 2025
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Increase in March, and the general winter trend is lower casualties than the rest of the year. Which was always expected from the beginning of the war, but Russia chose to escalate even during winter periods in previous years.
For sure it's the deadliest first 4 moths, with every month being clearly above previous years. And clearly increasing each year.
Obviously we don't know yet how the rest of the year will be but:
Daily average:
2024 last year: 846+983+910+899 = 3638
2025 This year: 1556+1255+1328+1209 = 5348
Difference 5348-3638*100/3638 = 47%
Doesn't look like that much on the graph IMO, but that's an increase of almost 50% already compared to first 4 months last year!
Russia is short of everything, so it wouldn't be too strange if they began to have a shortage of soldiers too. But if Russia makes a new mobilization effort, this number will probably increase again.
It's almost as if assaulting Ukrainian positions using ladas and motorbikes increases the casualties... π€
It's very telling when you look at the plots of the equipment losses in different categories. Especially ATV's, cars and motorcycles started significantly increasing last year, while AFV's, APC's and tanks were going down. There's a very clear shift in the equipment the russians are using.
I don't think the best equipped are the main problem though. π