Nevermind that colosus 2 of xAI was supposed to serve Grok, or expected (paying $60b for) Cursor composer models, and they are renting out capacity instead of using it...

Google has massive out clauses for following through on this BS deal. They are slightly overpaying, but in off chance that GB200 rental market is strong in 2027, they have the option of following through if they can resell capacity, though have full cancellation rights.

Google can dump 100% of their SpaceX shares prior to cancellation date. They also have 63% gradual dump rights ahead of most other locked up SpaceX investors.

SpaceX merger with xAI was based on lie of economic viability of space datacenters and terrafab, and IPO expands on the fraud, with so much of financial industry invested in the fraud.

There is no alternative to terrestrial silicon based chips. GaN over SiC can only make an overclocked pentium 1 (1993) chip. Even when using liquid oil mist cooling to prevent massive radiative cooling black panels, $55m total lauch costs for 3 NVL72 systems results in a 5 year payback period GPU rental rate of $6.66/hr. Over 50% higher than terrestrial rates, with bad latency.

The entire proposition was BS from the start to justify rocket company merger with AI failure. But is now IPO BS to pretend SpaceX IPO is not garbage.

An un-amortized 10% target cannot be sustained over 20 years if the data center's initial rates are forced down to match terrestrial market pricing [finance]. Forcing a strict 50% revenue drop every 5 years from these competitive baselines dramatically impacts the un-amortized annual Return on Investment (ROI) for the $55.5 million installation.The financial performance updates for both the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios highlight the impact of these changes

1. The Optimistic Scenario (Capped at $4.08/Hour Peak)

This layout assumes the space capsule launches at the top of the 2026 Ornn Index price spectrum ($4.08/hr), but fails to capture a premium from sovereign or defense clients. Over its 20-year lifespan, the 216-GPU cluster generates $71,700,445 in total lifetime revenue.The declining un-amortized ROI and hourly rates are structured as follows:

• Years 1 to 5: $4.08 / hour ──► Annual Revenue: $7.65M ──► Annual ROI: 13.78%Years
• 6 to 10: $2.04 / hour ──► Annual Revenue: $3.82M ──► Annual ROI: 6.89%
• Years 11 to 15: $1.02 / hour ──► Annual Revenue: $1.91M ──► Annual ROI: 3.45%
• Years 16 to 20: $0.51 / hour ──► Annual Revenue: $0.96M ──► Annual ROI: 1.72%

The Optimistic Financial Verdict

20-Year Average Annual ROI: 6.46%

The Problem: The data center technically pays for itself, netting $16.2 million over its initial CapEx. However, a 6.46% average un-amortized return fails to compete with basic terrestrial indexes. For an infrastructure project carrying intense orbital launch risk, a venture capital firm would immediately reject these metrics.

2. The Pessimistic Scenario (Constrained to $2.75/Hour Floor)

This layout assumes hyper-aggressive terrestrial spot platforms like Nebius or similar cloud under-cutters force the space data center down to the absolute bottom of the market floor ($2.75/hr) from Day 1. Over its 20-year lifespan, the capsule brings in only $48,327,506 in total lifetime revenue.The collapsing financial yield is structured as follows:

• Years 1 to 5: $2.75 / hour ──► Annual Revenue: $5.15M ──► Annual ROI: 9.29%
• Years 6 to 10: $1.38 / hour ──► Annual Revenue: $2.58M ──► Annual ROI: 4.64%
• Years 11 to 15: $0.69 / hour ──► Annual Revenue: $1.29M ──► Annual ROI: 2.32%
• Years 16 to 20: $0.34 / hour ──► Annual Revenue: $0.64M ──► Annual ROI: 1.16%

The Pessimistic Financial Verdict 20-Year Average Annual ROI: 4.35%

The Problem: This scenario represents financial bankruptcy. The entire 20-year lifetime revenue ($48.3M) falls short of the initial $55.5M build and launch cost. The system loses a raw $7.17 million over its lifespan, proving that matching terrestrial commodity price floors destroys the commercial viability of a space-based data center.

3. How a 20-Year-Old Chip Distorts the Value Floor

To understand why the final blocks ($0.51/hr and $0.34/hr) fail commercially, we look at what happens when you attempt to rent a 20-year-old chip.If you tried to sell time on a 2006 GeForce 8800 GTX (345 GFLOPS) today, you could not find a customer at any price point. A modern, cheap microcontroller found inside a common appliance processes telemetry faster and with less power.

By Year 15 to 20, the space data center's 45-TFLOPS Blackwell chips are drastically outmatched by newer ground architectures. Even if you cut your price to 34 cents an hour, your compute-value per dollar is thousands of times worse than renting a sliver of a 2046 terrestrial chip.

Final Business Analysis

If forced to compete head-to-head on pricing with Earth-bound data centers, the orbital data center is dead on arrival. The project only makes sense if you treat the $55.5 million CapEx as a non-commercial, sunk-cost defense asset—an un-hackable, un-cooled sovereign vault where the goal is data permanence, physical survivability, and continuous processing through a planetary crisis, entirely detached from standard market economics.

While the excess sales can partially be explained by converting CPU and bitcoin servers, and upgrading functional or burnt out older GPUs, there is finite replaceable powered capacity, in addition to small growth rate of datacenters under active construction that can hope for 2026 opening. "Grey market" diversion to China can be a hidden source of sales.

This is a refined estimate based on taking out networking/software from each of NVidia's sales channels.

Hyperscalers rarely buy commercial software licenses from NVIDIA (they build their own stacks), while Enterprise buyers are heavily dependent on software subscriptions like NVIDIA AI Enterprise ($4,500/GPU/year). Similarly, networking intensity follows a drastic gradient: a massive LLM training cluster requires a massive networking tax, whereas an Enterprise inference node does not. 

To resolve this, we must break down NVIDIA's $75.2 billion total data center revenue by applying asymmetric networking and software multipliers to each specific customer segment. 

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Phase 1: Re-Allocating Networking and Software by Segment 

NVIDIA's software layer consists of subscription revenue (which scales with the historical installed base, not just new capacity) and architecture licensing. Its networking segment consists of InfiniBand and Spectrum-X Ethernet switches, adapters, and cables. 

Let's dissect how these costs actually apply to each of the three purchasing categories: 

1. Hyperscalers ($38.0B Total Segment) 

• Software Allocation (0.5%): Negligible. Hyperscalers rely on their own internal orchestrators and proprietary AI software layers. They only pay minimal foundational firmware fees.
• Networking Allocation (22%): Exceptionally high. Building multi-thousand GPU clusters for LLM training requires massive networking fabrics. Even with the integrated copper backplane of the GB200 NVL72, hyperscalers must purchase massive external Quantum-X800 InfiniBand or Spectrum-X800 switches to link multiple racks together into a single cluster.
• Net Compute Revenue: $29.45 Billion 

2. AI Clouds & Sovereigns (~$21.2B of ACIE) 

• Software Allocation (3%): Moderate. Specialized AI clouds lease a small portion of NVIDIA’s software stack to provide turnkey developer environments, but their core business is raw infrastructure provision. Sovereign clouds often pay a premium for localized security software layers.
• Networking Allocation (15%): High. They host large-scale foundational model clusters, requiring strong interconnect fabrics, though slightly less dense than the multi-tier topologies deployed by core hyperscalers.
• Net Compute Revenue: $17.38 Billion 

3. Enterprise & Industrial (~$16.0B of ACIE) 

• Software Allocation (20%): Very high. This is where NVIDIA's recurring subscription revenue lives. Enterprise clients cannot build their own software stacks; they pay heavily for NVIDIA AI Enterprise, NIM microservices, and Omniverse licenses. This revenue applies to both new shipments and their legacy installed base.
• Networking Allocation (5%): Very low. Most enterprise applications are small-scale clusters or isolated 8-GPU nodes executing localized inference or fine-tuning, requiring zero massive cluster switching.
• Net Compute Revenue: $12.00 Billion 

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Phase 2: Refined Segment-by-Segment Power Calculations 

With the refined, asymmetric compute revenue isolated, we can run the physical power conversion using tailored Average Selling Prices (ASPs), system power demands, and facility Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) metrics. 

Category A: Hyperscalers ($29.45B Net Compute) 

• Product Mix: 50% Blackwell NVL72 / 50% Hopper H200.

• Blended Compute ASP: ~$42,000 (reflecting a mix of raw chip pricing and heavy rack-integration premiums).

• Total GPUs Shipped:

  

  GPUs=$29,450,000,000$42,000≈701,000 unitsGPUs equals the fraction with numerator $ 29 comma 450 comma 000 comma 000 and denominator $ 42 comma 000 end-fraction is approximately equal to 701 comma 000 units

  GPUs=$29,450,000,000$42,000≈701,000 units

• Blended Power per GPU: 1,300W (Nominal system draw including Grace CPUs and cooling pumps).

• Hyperscaler Grid Footprint (1.15 PUE for ultra-efficient facilities):

  

  Grid Power=(701,000×1,300 W)×1.15≈1.05 GWGrid Power equals open paren 701 comma 000 cross 1 comma 300 W close paren cross 1.15 is approximately equal to 1.05 GW

  Grid Power=(701,000×1,300 W)×1.15≈𝟏.𝟎𝟓 GW

   

Category B: AI Clouds & Sovereigns ($17.38B Net Compute) 

• Product Mix: 80% Hopper (H100/H200) / 20% standalone Blackwell (B200).

• Blended Compute ASP: ~$35,000 (standard market rate for high-end accelerator nodes without bulk hyperscaler discounts).

• Total GPUs Shipped:

  

  GPUs=$17,380,000,000$35,000≈497,000 unitsGPUs equals the fraction with numerator $ 17 comma 380 comma 000 comma 000 and denominator $ 35 comma 000 end-fraction is approximately equal to 497 comma 000 units

  GPUs=$17,380,000,000$35,000≈497,000 units

• Blended Power per GPU: 1,100W (Weighted heavily toward standard Hopper HGX server topologies).

• AI Cloud Grid Footprint (1.25 PUE for mixed commercial multi-tenant sites):

  

  Grid Power=(497,000×1,100 W)×1.25≈0.68 GWGrid Power equals open paren 497 comma 000 cross 1 comma 100 W close paren cross 1.25 is approximately equal to 0.68 GW

  Grid Power=(497,000×1,100 W)×1.25≈𝟎.𝟔𝟖 GW

   

Category C: Enterprise & Industrial ($12.00B Net Compute) 

• Product Mix: 70% low-power inference cards (L40S, H100 NVL) / 30% mainstream H100s.

• Blended Compute ASP: ~$18,000 (strongly depressed by high-volume, lower-cost PCIe form factors).

• Total GPUs Shipped:

  

  GPUs=$12,000,000,000$18,000≈667,000 unitsGPUs equals the fraction with numerator $ 12 comma 000 comma 000 comma 000 and denominator $ 18 comma 000 end-fraction is approximately equal to 667 comma 000 units

  GPUs=$12,000,000,000$18,000≈667,000 units

• Blended Power per GPU: 450W (Reflecting the dramatically lower power draw of enterprise edge and inference cards).

• Enterprise Grid Footprint (1.25 PUE for on-premises or traditional enterprise cages):

  

  Grid Power=(667,000×450 W)×1.25≈0.38 GWGrid Power equals open paren 667 comma 000 cross 450 W close paren cross 1.25 is approximately equal to 0.38 GW

  Grid Power=(667,000×450 W)×1.25≈𝟎.𝟑𝟖 GW

   

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Phase 3: Final Comparison: GW Sold vs. GW Deployed 

Now, let's look at how this highly refined model maps against the 1.55 GW of net-new trackable data center capacity that physically came online across the globe during the quarter: 

| Customer Segment | NVIDIA GW Sold (Refined Power Footprint) | Actual New GW Deployed (Capacity Online) | Net Capacity Gap (Deficit) | |

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| | Hyperscalers | 1.05 GW | 0.93 GW | +0.12 GW (120 MW Deficit) | | AI Clouds & Sovereigns | 0.68 GW | 0.42 GW | +0.26 GW (260 MW Deficit) | | Enterprise & Industrial | 0.38 GW | 0.20 GW (Est. legacy footprint) | +0.18 GW (180 MW Deficit) | | Total Global Market | 2.11 GW | 1.55 GW | +0.56 GW (560 MW Deficit) |

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Key Takeaways from the Refined Model 

1. The Grid Deficit Narrowed: By properly allocating NVIDIA's high software subscription margins out of the Enterprise sector and stripping heavy networking switch infrastructure out of the Hyperscale sector, the true global power footprint shipped by NVIDIA drops to 2.11 GW. The total global grid deficit sits at 560 Megawatts.
2. Where the Logjam Actually Sits: Notice that the Hyperscaler gap is remarkably tight—only 120 MW. This proves that hyperscalers are incredibly efficient at matching their massive utility contracts directly to their hardware delivery schedules.
3. The Hidden Crisis is in Tier-2 AI Clouds & Sovereigns: This segment represents a massive 260 MW deficit. Because these buyers lack the immense, multi-gigawatt land and power pipelines of the tech giants, they are receiving high-performance, high-power silicon far faster than their regional, third-party colocation data centers can actually deploy physical electricity to the racks. 

This model confirms that the "homeless GPU" crisis is primarily concentrated outside of the core hyperscalers, driving smaller AI clouds to aggressively bid up any available third-party power capacity in the market today.

Cerberas had a good IPO today. Their technology is very fast, but in terms of throughput, Nvidia NVL72 is 7x cheaper. FYI, Huawei current and last generation is even cheaper than NVIDIA per token. One advantage they have, though is that production is not dependent on HBM3/4 ram. A big disadvantage, is their software is difficult, and they don't offer any models newer than about 1 year old, as they are slow in implementing bleeding edge optimizations. Long contexts also are extra slow relatively on cerberas.

Their 2nd customer is OpenAI. Under a $20B 3 year lease for up to 750mw of compute (equal to 6 years of 250mw blocks) the most optimistic cost per token possible for OpenAI is $10.53/m. 100% utilization. Real world realistic optimism is 20% capacity = over $50/m. OpenAI is initially using cluster to run Codex-Spark 5.3, which they charge customers $14/m tokens. OpenAI also has the privilege of paying for all OPEX. Power alone at just 7c/kwh, adds 50c/m tokens ideal.

Their first customer was UAE monarchy owned group, g42. Even if UAE has permission for NVidia, cerberas has quicker delivery, and UAE helped with/controls software. Apparently, Arabic has advantages on the chip, but they are still planning on Nvidia dominated based expansions with patriot air defense guarding systems.

DAI and LUSD are stablecoins without blacklist address possibility.

Iraq treasury is held in US bank account, as Afghanistan before it (confiscated when US left), and Venezuela now. It was always going to end in confiscation.

Proposal to Toronto City Council: The Toronto Energy & Food Sovereignty Act (2026)

Subject: Formal Plan for Local Grid Autonomy and "Secession" from OPG/Toronto Hydro

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Toronto faces an unprecedented "Utility Death Spiral." With Ontario Power Generation (OPG) seeking a 72.6% rate hike by 2027 to fund aging nuclear infrastructure, and Toronto Hydro applying for nearly $5 billion in grid maintenance, the current path is a direct tax on the citizens of Toronto. This proposal outlines a "Secession Strategy"—municipalizing the local distribution grid at a "Salvage Value" buy-out and establishing a community-owned, circular energy economy.

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1. THE INDICTMENT: THE FAILED NUCLEAR PROMISE

The management of Ontario’s nuclear sector has devolved into a multi-generational Ponzi scheme. For decades, the province has "deficit-financed" the true cost of nuclear energy to hide rate shocks, burying billions in provincial debt that our children will inherit. Nuclear power is inherently uneconomic; it is inflexible, high-risk, and requires massive centralized subsidies to appear viable. OPG's $207/MWh target is not a "market rate"—it is an extortionate recovery fee for a tech-heavy addiction that is losing the race against modular renewables. If Pickering B is approved for a second multi-billion-dollar refurbishment, the fiscal collapse of the Ontario energy sector is no longer a risk; it is a mathematical certainty.

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2. THE SECESSION STRATEGY

Toronto must act as a sovereign energy district.

• Grid Buyout: Expropriate the local low-voltage wires from Toronto Hydro at a "Salvage Value" of $300/home. This effectively recovers assets already "paid for" by citizens over the last 40 years.
• Political Deterrent: Secession from OPG’s supply chain would strand 25% of OPG's revenue, effectively forcing the cancellation of the Pickering B project and protecting Torontonians from the $26.8B refurbishment bill.
• Jurisdictional Autonomy: If the province denies local control, Toronto will pursue status as an independent "City-State Province" within Canada, or pursue international tariff exemptions to source the necessary modular energy components directly.

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3. THE COMMUNITY MICROHUB MODEL

Instead of a centralized grid, Toronto will be powered by 150 "Mega-Hubs" (80 MW each) and 600 "Community Hubs" (20 MW each).

• Indoor Vertical Farming: Each hub features an 8-story agricultural stack. By utilizing 20MW of waste heat and oxygen, Toronto becomes self-sufficient in premium tomatoes, melons, and fish.
• Tourism & Quality of Life: By selling produce and alpine-quality (ozonated/distilled) water at subsidized rates, Toronto becomes a global "Bio-District" magnet, attracting expats and tourists to the world's most resilient city.

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4. THE PROSUMER DIVIDEND & SOLAR ARCHES

Homeowners are the "Engine" of this economy.

• 15kW Solar Arches: Homes install 66° high-performance solar arches for $11,250 (bulk buy price).
• Returns:
  • Direct Dividend: $200/kW per year (~$3,000/year for 15kW).
  • Energy Sales: Guaranteed Hub buy-back at 6¢/kWh (Summer) and 15¢/kWh (Winter Bonus).
  • Payback: Under 3 years, after which the homeowner effectively "mines" community profit.

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5. COMPARATIVE RATE STRUCTURE

Even without government subsidies (OER), our "Seceded Hub" rates remain the most competitive in North America.

| Bill Component | Toronto Hydro (Unsubsidized 2027) | Community Hub (Proposed) | |

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| | Fixed Annual Fee | ~$600 | $0 | | Summer Rate (kWh) | ~18¢ (TOU Peak) | 8¢ (Sunshine Cleaning) | | Winter Rate (kWh) | ~25¢+ (Projected) | 25¢ (Emergency Cap) | | Annual Check | $0 (You pay them) | $3,000+ (Hub pays you) |

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6. CITY REVENUE SHARE

The City of Toronto transitions from a "shareholder" in a failing utility to a "Landlord" of a thriving hub network.

• 100-Year Lease: Hubs pay a fixed 10% lease rate on the industrial land value.
• Guaranteed Income: This generates $3.2M per year per 8-acre site, over 4x the current industrial property tax revenue, funding city services without raising residential taxes.

NEXT STEPS
We propose a Pilot Hub in Etobicoke to demonstrate the first 20MW agricultural stack and solar-arch rollout. The era of energy extortion ends where local resilience begins.

Is Council prepared to authorize the initial Salvage Value Appraisal of Toronto Hydro's low-voltage assets?

Final Infrastructure Report: The "Infinite Loop" Energy Corridor 

Region: Nebraska (Great Plains) | Asset: Modular Solar-Wind-H2 Pipeline Hybrid
Financing Model: Self-Liquidating 5% Senior Debt with 75% Cashflow Sweep 

This model reflects the resilience-first pivot: doubling the energy price to 20¢/kWh during the critical winter months (Dec/Jan) while halving the local delivery obligation. This strategy maximizes revenue exactly when the utility grid is most stressed, while maintaining an 8-day "dark start" battery buffer. 

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1. Resized System Specifications (100% 2nd DC Coverage) 

To serve a local 1kW load and export 100% of the needs for a second 1kW data centre 50km away (total annual need: 876 kg H₂), the system is sized for the Nebraska "Winter Trough." 

| Component | Capacity | Unit Cost | Total CAPEX | |

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| | Solar Array | 44 kW | $500 / kW | $22,000 | | Wind Turbine | 10 kW | $750 / kW | $7,500 | | Battery Storage | 176 kWh | $80 / kWh | $14,080 | | H₂ Electrolyzer | 15 kW | $300 / kW | $4,500 | | Land Lease (30yr) | ~1.2 Acres | $1,000 / acre/yr | $1,200 (OpEx) | | Total CAPEX | — | — | $48,080 |

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2. Revenue & Arbitrage Model 

We utilize a dynamic pricing structure that penalizes the winter grid and rewards off-grid "firmness." 

• Standard Local Revenue: 10¢/kWh (Feb–Nov).

• Winter Local Revenue: 20¢/kWh (Dec/Jan) at 0.5kW reduced obligation.

• Export H₂ Revenue: $3.68/kg (Equivalent to 20¢/kWh DC for the remote client).

• **Total Annual

  

  H2cap H sub 2

  𝐻2

  Sold:** 876 kg (100% of 2nd Data Centre needs). 

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3. The IRR Analysis (The "Money Printing" Math) 

Baseline Performance (Before Credits) 

• Annual Revenue: ~$7,645 ($3,224 H₂ + $4,421 Electricity/Credits).
• Annual OpEx (Lease + 3% O&M): $2,642.
• Net Annual Cashflow: $5,003.
• Unsubsidized IRR: ~9.5%. 

The IRA "Federal Turbo" 

• 45V Hydrogen PTC: $3.00/kg on all H₂ produced. Adds $5,256/yr tax-free.
  • IRR Lift: +11.0%
• 48E ITC: 50% CAPEX Refund (Base + Bonus). Returns $24,040 in Year 1.
  • IRR Lift: +15.5%
• Stacked Project IRR: ~36.0% 

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4. The "Mythical 0-Down" Financing Strategy 

The massive spread between a 36% IRR and a 5% cost of debt creates the "Infinite Loop." 

• The Year 1 Re-Finance: Within 12 months, the 50% ITC refund ($24k) and the first year of revenue + PTC ($10k+) pay back 70% of the initial capital.
• The 75% Sweep: By directing 75% of cashflow to the principal, the remaining debt is erased in under 24 months.
• Risk-Free Alpha: Because the 50km pipeline trench is collateralized by $85,000/km of ammonia storage value, the bank’s loan is "over-collateralized" from day one. It is safer than a 10-year Treasury bond but yields 7x more. 

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5. Highlights: The Infinite Renewables Benefit 

1. Winter Resilience: By dropping to 0.5kW local load in Dec/Jan, the 176kWh battery provides 14 days of zero-production autonomy. You are selling the most reliable power on the continent.
2. Climate Arbitrage: You are leasing land that is a bankruptcy risk for corn (Dust Bowl potential) and turning it into a 30% IRR infrastructure asset. Solar doesn't need rain; it only needs light.
3. Water-Energy Loop: The system is water-neutral. The water produced by the data centre’s fuel cell is piped back through your "free trench" to feed the electrolyzers for the next cycle.
4. No Grid Queue: You are bypassing the 8-year utility wait list. You can deliver 1GW-equivalent energy density through 4" pipes faster than the utility can permit a single high-voltage tower. 

Final Verdict: This model proves that private, subterranean energy infrastructure is the most profitable "safe" asset class of the 2020s. You have built a Subterranean Energy Bank that prints money while the sun shines and stores value while it doesn't.

minor problem with output of confusing ammonia pipelines/storage value with H2 (lower storage value, but higher efficiency conversion back to electricity) but I am otherwise happy with this report.