Cyberboroshno's analysis of satellite imagery tracked the shadow fleet's collapse in numbers. Around 1 July, about 100 vessels sat north of the Crimean Bridge in the Azov Sea, with roughly 100 more to the south near the Taman port. By 6 July, the northern group had thinned to about 40. By 8 July, some 20 remained in the north, one of them burning, with massed movement toward the bridge.

The northern vessels are mostly small river-class tankers, the analysts found. They shuttle fuel south, where cargo is transshipped onto much larger ships for direct Black Sea runs to importer countries. The vessels belong to Russia's so-called shadow fleet, used to circumvent sanctions.

I hadn't seen this detail elsewhere, but it seems like disabling these smaller tankers would have a wider effect on Russia's oil exports than just taking down ocean-going tankers. They hit a bunch of oil depots in that supply the tankers, too.

[–] Glowstick@lemmy.world 4 points 20 hours ago* (last edited 20 hours ago) (3 children)

Does anyone have a guess as to why Ukraine is targeting crimea so hard? It's surrounded by Russian controlled land and contested water. So even if Russia evacuates crimea entirely then Ukraine can't move troops there to reclaim the territory. So what's the strategic purpose?

[–] testaccount372920@piefed.zip 3 points 2 hours ago

I suspect there's multiple reasons. There's morale, there's increased control of the Black Sea, and there's cutting off supplies and other support for the southern front. I think the last is the most valid reason.

Ukraine more or less has drone control over the roads running east-west along the southern front. This left the Krim as the safest supply route. However, the Krim is relatively easy to isolate because it's an island. Destroy the bridges and ships, and voila, no more supply line.

Additionally, Russia used the Krim as a safe rearguard and to launch long-range strikes. Displacing such strikes gives Ukraine more response time, because Russia needs to launch from further away. And it makes it harder for Russia to strike Odesa, which is important for Ukraine's exports and therefore also for its financial situation.

If Ukraine manages to break through Russia's southern front, I wouldn't be surprised if they can push all the way to the Black Sea/Krim/Sea of Azov in one go, since Russia will have great difficulties responding in that area.

[–] Valmond@lemmy.dbzer0.com 7 points 16 hours ago

On an operational level, It's probably easier to isolate Crimea than the eastern front, a couple of bridges and drones for close land + kicking the boats and suddenly ; no gas, no electricity which means no food, no water, no warmachine, ...

Also there is a political side to it, if they take back Crimea, it will probably spell the end of Putins regime.

[–] supersquirrel@sopuli.xyz 5 points 20 hours ago* (last edited 20 hours ago) (1 children)

Crimea, specifically the Kinburn Spit, is the tail end of a Prince Rupert's Drop, snipping it will begin a broad dismantling of the russian frontlines.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Rupert%27s_drop

These droplets are characterized internally by very high residual stresses, which give rise to counter-intuitive properties such as the ability to withstand a blow from a hammer or a bullet on the bulbous end without breaking, while exhibiting explosive disintegration if the tail end is even slightly damaged. In nature, similar structures are produced under certain conditions in volcanic lava and are known as Pele's tears.

Preston Stewart's recent interview with Rob Lee explains it well.

https://inv.nadeko.net/watch?v=8YSKgJDacYE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YSKgJDacYE

Also see this recent RFU video.

https://inv.nadeko.net/watch?v=7g6nv6xanQA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g6nv6xanQA

Ukraine has chased russia out of the sea, that is why Ukraine can decisively take Crimea.

[–] Glowstick@lemmy.world 3 points 20 hours ago (1 children)

Thanks, but that's not really a clear answer. How would even a fully evacuated crimea lead to "a broad dismantling of the russian frontlines"?

[–] supersquirrel@sopuli.xyz 1 points 19 hours ago* (last edited 19 hours ago) (1 children)

One of the most fundamental aspects of warfare is dismantling the enemy frontline by creating/finding a break in them and "folding" the break back to encircle enemy forces.

Try reading some military history!

Or buy Gary Grigsby's War In The East 2 and learn to play it..

https://store.steampowered.com/app/1775550/Gary_Grigsbys_War_in_the_East_2/

[–] Glowstick@lemmy.world 1 points 19 hours ago (1 children)

Right, but crimea isn't a frontline, which is what i was saying

[–] supersquirrel@sopuli.xyz 2 points 19 hours ago* (last edited 19 hours ago)

Crimea isn't a frontline in the same way fish stuck in a barrel looking up past the surface at a machine gun don't consider the edges of their barrel a frontline.