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Russia won't invade Lithuania. It's too busy fighting in Ukraine.
It wouldn't be SMART for Russia to invade Lithuania, but unfortunately the prevailing theme of the 2020s has been that world leaders don't always make the smart decision.
EDIT: typo
Correct, just like Japan bombing Pearl Harbor. However, it would be better for Germany to aid Ukraine more rather than spend money on sending troops to Lithuania. Give Ukraine more Leopard 2s.
This is serving a different purpose than that. The idea of this is that IF Russia were to do something in Lithuania, the presence of German soldiers means that the German public is more invested. “Our people were hurt” is generally more resonant than “a small country way east of us was attacked”. Their very presence limits Russia’s options for what they can do in Lithuania without provoking a harsher and more united German response. There is apparently intelligence that an attack on Lithuania is likely so it’s in the EU’s interests to deter such a strike before it even happens. As Lithuania is an EU member its safety as an EU member likely ranks above Ukraine which is not one in EU priorities. Besides which, tanks are not being used as heavily as earlier due to the hostile drone environment on the front lines anyway.
edit: bad choice of words to say “our men” rather than “our people” lol
It is a good point that Germans would be more willing to fight if their troops are attacked but remember Lithuania is a member of NATO. If Lithuania is attacked, all NATO members are obligated to fight. The Leopard 2 is a formidable tank and being used in a way that German designers did not intend. See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrjMYVVeHkM
Ukraine would be happy to have more Leopard 2s. The tanks would keep Russia occupied in Ukraine, so Putin won't think of mischief elsewhere.
In theory yes, practically speaking it is not necessarily as clear cut as one attack means everyone jumps in. Putin loves that gray zone of using domestic agents in other countries or deniable situations like wayward drones and also low stakes. Keeping the stakes low in such incursions keeps the wider NATO alliance from jumping in like they would for a clear cut all out invasion, but still allows for antagonizing countries and making NATO look weak because they can gradually push the envelope so long as they managed to stay on this side of the moving line. For example, they bombed an apartment complex with a drone in Romania recently and went teehee we didn’t mean that. The assembled NATO countries agreed with them because it’s not considered worth declaring war on Russia over a partially damaged apartment complex, particularly since no one actually died. Similarly a Russian missile blasted a field in Poland but while technically an attack on Polish soil people will not respect going to war over a disruption of just literal Polish soil. If Russia pushes just slightly and slightly harder over time then at any particular step it can seem pretty unreasonable to upend the table and go to war with a nuclear power over something that is just a twinge worse than what you accepted a month ago. That can sow dissension in the alliance on how to respond. And since Lithuania is quite weak on its own, it’s very reassuring to Lithuania to have states with more oomph invested in their defense.
All the ongoing stuff above and the intelligenece recieved are in the backdrop of the ongoing war with Ukraine anyway so we know that that whole endeavor is evidently still not enough for Putin to give up on gray zone shenanigans. It seems unlikely that one tank brigade would make the difference when each side has somewhere around a million people slugging it out right now.
Yes, Putin doesn't want to go too far and provoke a war with NATO. Europe could help Ukraine more. Germany could supply Taurus missiles and France Rafale fighter jets. This would limit Putin's mischief elsewhere.
A little side action to force concessions? Same reason as to why Ukrainians took the Kursk gamble.
That would be stupid. Lithuania is a NATO member. An attack on Lithuania would mean war with NATO. NATO could attack Russia through Ukraine.
Why not? All they need to do is make people frightened and stop supporting Ukraine. There are already plenty assholes that want to stop supporting them.
Instead of being frightened, Europeans would see that Russia is a danger and they must fight.
That would be the world I wish we live in. But Trump got voted, the right is on a massive rise and pushes pro Russia bullshit, etc. etc. So a somewhat different world.