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Ik help you hope it, but I don't think the savings will out do the tax revenue of the excise tax
Your comment encouraged me to go and find the actual figures for tabacco revenue and the costs of ill health due to its use.
The UK goverment's figures show tabacco revenue falling year on year, with tax on cigarettes and hand rolling tabacco now totalling about £6B per year.
In terms of costs, ASH seem to have produced the clearest breakdown here. They give a combined cost to the NHS and social care of £3.1B, so your assertion is correct there. However they also note a lost of productivity (basically people not working because they're sick, or dieing before retirement age) of some £18.3B. Assuming that productivity would be taxed, that would more than make up the difference.
The reduction in revenue and costs will also happen quite slowly, presumbly over the course of a full generation, so there should be plenty if time to adjust.
Anyway, thanks for sending me to find the actual figures, it was a worthwhile exercise.
Great sleuthing!
I think taking into account aan earlier death, that's quicker than, say Alzheimers needs to be taken into account. A Dutch magazine once did that math and argued that smoking is cheaper for the state overall.
Not that that pleads for smoking in any way, shape or form. The main benefit is an improved quality of life. (And better financial stability for those concerned).