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Hey, I'm not sure where you got your factor of 5 years, but it was a number I pulled out my ass. I'm a repair depot I typically didn't see drives that live much longer than 17k hours (just under 2 years). That didn't mean that they always fall at that age, only that systems that came through had about that much time on them max.
Regarding the 136 vs 150 million numbers, those numbers are pure bullshit. MTBF is a raw calculation of how long it will take these devices to fall based on operational runtime over how many failures were experienced in the field. They most likely applied a small number of warranty failures over a massive number of manufacturing runs and projected that it would take that long for about half their drives to fall.
In reality, you will see failure spikes in the lifetime of a product. The initial failures will spike and drop off. I recall reading either the data surrounding this article or something similar when they realized that the bathtub curve may not be the full picture. They just updated it again for numbers from up to last year and you can see that it would be difficult to project an average lifetime of 20 years, much less 150.
My last thought on this is that when Backblaze mentions consumer vs enterprise drives they are possibly discussing SATA vs SAS. This comes from the realization that enterprise workstation drives are still just consumer drives with a part number label on them (seen in Dell and HP Enterprise equipment). Now, they could be referring to more expensive SATA drives, but I can't imagine that they are using anything but SAS at this point in their lifecycle.
I have a bunch of working drives with 2+ years, and in my area almost everyone still has their system installed on old hard drives
I did not mean an average timeline of 20 years
there are plenty of enterprise SATA drives
that's workstation drives. Obviously if your work buys 2 TB wd blue drives they won't become enterprise drives. enterprise drives include like that of wd red pro, ultrastars, etc, which do use the SATA interface.