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I feel like this really is a mini-test for America right now. Orban has been trying his best to rig the election in his favour despite is very obvious unpopularity. He's behind in polling; and would be even further behind without his fuckery in the background.
So one of two things will happen on April 12th, either the result will be so overwhelming that if he tries to claim it was rigged, it would be an obviously bullshit claim. Or he'll somehow sneak in with the victory despite being behind the entire time (sound familiar).
Can Hungary overcome his fuckery is a direct mirror to the American midterms. Will Trump accept the results, or refuse to leave. And if it's the second, will Hungarian people rise up?
Orban already won the previous N elections using fuckery. The test has already shown that this kind of managed democracy can "work" for fascists.
At some point, someone has to be out there willing to fuck with the machinery of the election. The problem Orbán has is his shrinking pool of people willing to do that. He's running against his own PM, ffs. It's not like we're seeing a sea change in Hungarian politics. It's just local plutocrats deciding they've had enough of Orbán's ego and are trading him out for someone more pliable.
Same thing happened to Petro Poroshenko in Ukraine. He fucked around way too hard and galvanized the whole country against him.