forecasting

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Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Any decision we make is based on a prediction what will happen. Here we study and discuss how to do that well.

Related community: !predictions@lemmy.ca

Forecasting can be about economics, marketing, products, finance, technology, policies, demographics, energy, climate, crime, politics, or whatever.

founded 2 years ago
MODERATORS
copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de
listing: all - local
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Forecasting is Way Overrated, and We Should Stop Funding It (forum.effectivealtruism.org)
submitted 2 weeks ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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Why Forecasting Fails Decision Makers (nwprtnarrative.substack.com)
submitted 2 weeks ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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Grading AI 2027’s 2025 Predictions (blog.aifutures.org)
submitted 3 weeks ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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Prediction markets are breaking the news and becoming their own beat (www.niemanlab.org)
submitted 3 weeks ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
1 comments fedilink
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I underestimated AI capabilities (again) (www.planned-obsolescence.org)
submitted 2 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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BahnBet — Bet on German Train Delays (bahn.bet)
submitted 2 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
1 comments fedilink
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Aggressively reorienting the forecasting community towards AI resilience (forecasting.substack.com)
submitted 3 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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Polymarket vs Forecasting: Geopolitical Shifts in 2026 (swiftcentre.substack.com)
submitted 3 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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He Predicted the Next Shutdown 3 Weeks Early (news.polymarket.com)
submitted 3 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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AI predictions for 2026 (www.planned-obsolescence.org)
submitted 4 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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Mantic Monday: The Monkey's Paw Curls (www.astralcodexten.com)
submitted 4 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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Metaculus and Markets: What’s the Difference? (www.metaculus.com)
submitted 9 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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$286 to $1M from ‘Reversing Stupidity’ (news.polymarket.com)
submitted 10 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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How accurate are prediction markets? (brier.fyi)
submitted 10 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
 
 

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Forecasting America (news.manifold.markets)
submitted 10 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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He Made $300k Betting on a “Narcissistic Sociopath” (news.polymarket.com)
submitted 10 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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Iranian Regime Is Cooked: Forecaster Who Predicted Israeli Strike (news.polymarket.com)
submitted 11 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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Escalation Between Iran and Israel: Forecasts Amid Rapid Developments (www.swiftcentre.org)
submitted 11 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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🔮 This Substack Writer Made 2.5X in Two Weeks Betting on a Polish Election Upset (news.polymarket.com)
submitted 11 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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Will Jesus Christ return in an election year? (ericneyman.wordpress.com)
submitted 11 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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Forecaster reacts: METR's bombshell paper about AI acceleration (peterwildeford.substack.com)
submitted 1 year ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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The War in Ukraine Ends This Year: Thoughts and Predictions (thecategoricalimperative.substack.com)
submitted 1 year ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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Betting on the Pope was the original prediction market (nodumbideas.com)
submitted 1 year ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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Manifolds abandons Sweepstakes and goes pure play-money again (manifoldmarkets.notion.site)
submitted 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
 
 

The same on their Substack.

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The State of Metaculus (www.metaculus.com)
submitted 1 year ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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