this post was submitted on 25 Jul 2026
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cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/49878453

Solo project I've been building this month, wanted to share here. The rules:

You get $10,000 and two secret years of real S&P 500 history, drawn from 1928 to 2019 (daily data, dividends included; your cash earns T-bill rates while you hide). One button: BUY or SELL. Your opponent is a couch. It buys at the start and never moves.

Every finished game is audited by 1,000 monkeys. It's a permutation test 1,000 replays with your same time in the market and same number of trades, on random days. Beat 90% of the monkeys and your win is stamped TIMED THE MARKET. Anything less is stamped LUCKY, in red ink, on your settlement document.

About 84,000 games have been played so far. The couch has won 63% of them. Roughly 1 game in 9 ends in a win that survives the monkey audit.

There's also a daily hand, same secret window for everyone, streaks, and a public ledger of humanity vs the couch.

If you have time, I'd love feedback, and I will answer any methodology questions, thanks!

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[–] GreenKnight23@lemmy.world 46 points 2 months ago (1 children)
[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 13 points 2 months ago (1 children)

first and best use of this meme. i should think of some easter eggs related to this... congrats and hope you liked it (was a nice couch)

[–] GreenKnight23@lemmy.world 18 points 2 months ago (1 children)

1000004365

it was an excellent couch. before I wrecked it!

[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 6 points 2 months ago

not the same couch, cousins actually...

[–] Katana314@lemmy.world 27 points 2 months ago (1 children)

It’s a little scary to learn that the reason the stock market graphs are always so jagged minute to minute through the day is because of people like these.

[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 18 points 2 months ago (5 children)

there's opportunity in trading. but to assume you'll get the benefit is very similar to assuming you'll beat the casino. it's possible, but unlikely, especially in the long term.

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[–] ikidd@lemmy.dbzer0.com 15 points 2 months ago (1 children)

The couch can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent.

[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 2 points 2 months ago
[–] rf_@lemmy.world 12 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Small request, can you add the couch’s win pct next to the number of games it has won? I’m lazy

Thanks!

[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 9 points 2 months ago (1 children)

done, refresh a few times to see it

[–] rf_@lemmy.world 3 points 2 months ago (1 children)
[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 4 points 2 months ago

no problem, good idea, never got around to it

[–] ExLisper@lemmy.curiana.net 10 points 2 months ago (1 children)

I won. Does that mean I should start betting on stocks? Ok.

[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 8 points 2 months ago

well, go easy i guess...

[–] Solemarc@lemmy.world 8 points 2 months ago (1 children)

I beat 9/10 monkeys! Damn I'm good, I should do this for real!

[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 3 points 2 months ago

nice, congrats! and maybe you should (not)

[–] zlatko@programming.dev 7 points 2 months ago (2 children)

Spamming the trade buttons seems to be a good strategy

[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 1 points 2 months ago

i just lost 3 out of 4 like that but certainly a strategy

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[–] Wispy2891@lemmy.world 6 points 2 months ago (2 children)

Wtf it's harder than I imagined

[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 6 points 2 months ago

yess, kind of the message hope you liked it!

[–] BlackLaZoR@lemmy.world 4 points 2 months ago

S&P historically grew at like 7% per year on averange. You're at constant disadvantage against couch

[–] reddit_sux@lemmy.world 5 points 2 months ago (1 children)

U r sure it's not "be at the couch"

[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 3 points 2 months ago
[–] Fandangalo@lemmy.world 4 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

I played maybe 15 games. I won one in 99th percentile and lost one in like 40th.

You main visual is the market line, but I would make the main visual the competing lines of you vs couch, whether that’s bars or also graphed on the market. Otherwise, you’re sort of burying the mental image you want people to take away.

There’s also times where the market went completely south, so I did nothing, and got the “enlightened” position.

It’s a neat micro-game, but it comes off as preachy. Maybe that’s your intent, but being preachy can really turn people off. That maybe not your intent.

[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 7 points 2 months ago (1 children)

the two lines are certainly harder/confusing to follow, i preferred the absolute numbers at the top. the preachy thing is certainly a choice, i do want to make a point with this. the whole thing is based on that tone of voice. i hear you, it'll turn some people off and i think i'm ok with it. appreciate the honest feedback.

[–] architect@thelemmy.club 1 points 2 months ago

Art should be like that, anyways. It’s a good micro game.

[–] criss_cross@lemmy.world 4 points 2 months ago (1 children)

These are always good counter arguments to technical analysis. But I’d love to see something where you get industry news surrounding the stocks and have to see if you can also trade based on the news and noise or if the couch wins there.

[–] Obi@sopuli.xyz 4 points 2 months ago

In these older years maybe that would change something but in the modern era the market is totally irrational and doesn't react to news with any kind of sense.

[–] mEEGal@lemmy.world 4 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Fucking brilliant ! 👏👏

[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 2 points 2 months ago (2 children)

glad you liked it mate! you won or what?

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[–] architect@thelemmy.club 2 points 2 months ago (1 children)
[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 2 points 2 months ago
[–] BlackLaZoR@lemmy.world 2 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Interesting game. You could add crypto currencies for fun factor. Beating the couch in bitcoin trading could be an interesting challange

[–] noir_chat@lemmy.world 2 points 2 months ago

yeah, i'm thinking about it. maybe i'll launch it on the app and add it to the web version. but not sure yet, not even sure if it's worth the effort for an app

[–] Blackdoomax@sh.itjust.works 1 points 1 month ago

Love it, tyu.

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