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EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS 11 June 2026

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

Synopsis: El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27.

El Niño conditions developed over the past month, as shown by above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was +0.7°C, with the westernmost (Niño-4) and easternmost (Niño-1+2) indices at +0.7°C and +2.1°C, respectively [Fig. 2]. The equatorial subsurface temperature index (average from 180°-100°W) decreased in the past month [Fig. 3], but significantly above-average subsurface temperatures remained in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific [Fig. 4]. Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies were evident over the central equatorial Pacific. Convection was slightly above average over the central and east-central equatorial Pacific and was near or below average over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the onset of El Niño conditions.

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average, including the NCEP CFSv2 [Fig. 6], forecasts El Niño to intensify into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27. High confidence in El Niño [Fig. 7] is also linked to anomalously high oceanic heat content and expanding westerly wind anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. There is a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño during November-January [Fig. 8] that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950. Even very strong El Niño events do not lead to the expected impact everywhere, but stronger events can more significantly tilt the odds in favor of expected outcomes (see CPC outlooks for probabilities of seasonal anomalies). In summary, El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 July 2026.

Indonesia's so-called Just Energy Transition Partnership, or Jet-P, was launched at a G20 summit in Bali in 2022. Similar deals have been struck with South Africa, Vietnam and Senegal. They are widely regarded as the most ambitious attempt at getting international climate finance to end coal use in populous, coal-dependent middle-income countries.

The UK government once touted the Jet-Ps as "a template on how to support just transition around the world." This refers to efforts to ensure that the phase-out of fossil fuels and phase-in of low-carbon technologies is fair, inclusive and reflects the demands of workers and affected communities.

But if this approach cannot retire a single plant in Indonesia, the world's fourth largest coal consumer, there is reason to question whether the model itself works.

Well, complete failure would tend to indicate it doesn't work.

I don't know enough about it to make an informed scathing comment like I do with the stupidity of BECCS, NetZero, Hydrogen, biofuels and Nuclear but someone else may be able to shed more light ?

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/38733313

France experienced its hottest spring on record, the country's weather service said Tuesday, after an exceptional early heat wave that also broke seasonal highs in England and Wales.